Japan’s Strategic Calculus: Does Taiwan matter?
It is fairly well known that Japanese manga and anime are replete with epic battles and combat scenes. A famous manga series from the 1980’s, adapted into an anime series later is the "Fist of the North Star" (北斗の拳). Set in a post-apocalyptic Earth after a nuclear war, the story revolves around a warrior named Kenshiro, the successor of a deadly martial art which gives him the ability to kill his opponents by striking their secret vital points. It is most significant for popularizing the phrase "You are already dead" (お前はもう死んでいる, Omae wa mō shindeiru), which Kenshiro often says to his opponents before they die from the delayed effects of his attacks.
What are some of the vital points for Japan where it can be hurt? Or is it already, unwittingly, reeling from a silent and slow assault? With recent media frenzy on China planning to invade Taiwan by 2027, it is timely to enquire how much of an outsized role Taiwan plays in Tokyo’s foreign policy. In line with the 1972 Japan-China Joint Communique, Japan has maintained working relations with Taiwan on a non-governmental basis. It has not taken positions on the issue of sovereignty but emphasized "peace and stability" in the strait, calling it an "indispensable element for the security and prosperity of the international community".
Japan seems to have entered a new strategic era where the guiding Yoshida Doctrine, which emphasized economic growth over security concerns, has been replaced by three updated security documents- the National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), and Defense Build Up (DBU). They collectively seek to increase the Japanese defense budget by 60% over five years, abandoning an informal budget cap of 1% of GDP, and acquire counter strike missiles. Aware of the time it will take Japan to build the military infrastructure needed, Iwama Yoko, the director of the Strategic Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) remarked at a recent seminar “It’s still a resolve. It’s not a capability yet.”
Given the above, there are four main vital points that should make Japan reconsider its attitude toward a potential Taiwan Crisis in the region- trade and investment, semiconductor technology, sea lines of communication and public opinion. According to the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China is Japan’s largest trading partner, and Japan is China’s second largest trading partner following the U.S. (2023). Japan's direct investment in China is close to $9.2 billion dollars, being the third largest investment destination country after the U.S. and Australia. China also ranks first in terms of the number of overseas bases of Japanese companies with Japan being its third largest inward investor.
Compared to trade relations with Taiwan, according to the statistics from the Investment Commission of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Japan is Taiwan’s third-largest trading partner and its fourth-largest source of foreign investment. Japan’s direct investment in the country is $ 1.7 billion, far less than its investments in China. Thus, prioritizing relations with China can be beneficial for Japan's economy while taking a strong stance on Taiwan could risk economic retaliation from China, potentially harming Japanese businesses and trade.
One of the most critical aspects of Japan's reliance on Taiwan is in the semiconductor industry. Taiwan is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest contract chip manufacturer. Japan relies heavily on TSMC for advanced semiconductors crucial for various industries, including automotive, electronics, and consumer goods. However, given how semiconductor technology has always been a security issue, there has been an increasing trend at relocating factories across the world, for example in the US where Biden in 2022 signed the Chips and Science Act into law and pledged billions of dollars towards the sector. Earlier this year TSMC opened a chip fabricator in Kumamoto, Japan, its first outside Taiwan since 2018. Japan is also adopting new industrial policies with the aim of restoring the international competitiveness of its semiconductor industry which in the 1980’s contributed to more than 50% of the world’s supply, a number that has dwindled to 9% in 2022.
Another crucial issue for Japan is its energy security, given its increased dependence on imports which makes the Taiwan Strait a critical maritime trade route. The strait is relatively narrow, approximately 180 kilometers at its widest point, but it is deep enough to accommodate large vessels, including oil tankers and container ships. Maritime infrastructure, including advanced navigation systems and port facilities in the surrounding regions makes it a convenient and efficient route for heavy maritime traffic. However, in case the stability and security of the strait is under threat, the geographical and logistical barriers of going around the island using the Philippines Sea could be overcome, although at very high costs.
The Japanese government also faces institutional constraints, including legal and constitutional limitations on military action, which reflect broader public reluctance to engage in overseas conflicts. A recent opinion poll found that 56 percent of Japanese think the country should only engage in rearguard support of the United States in case of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait and 27 percent said Japan should not engage at all. Only 11 percent were in favor of Japan using force itself. Voters were also asked which of the two approaches they think Japan should prioritize for its national security: deepening the relationship with China through diplomacy and the economy or strengthening defense capabilities. 70% selected “deepening the relationship with China,” far more than the 26 percent who chose “strengthening defense capabilities.” These views are essential to Japan’s security community which is keenly aware of the role public opinion has on its defense stance.
Politically, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has shown strong support for Taiwan, influenced by strategic considerations and historical ties. However, coalition partner Komeito, which advocates for peaceful relations and has closer ties with China, moderates this stance. The LDP has recently made efforts to advance ties with Taiwanese political parties in a bid to influence policy decisions in the country. So, Japan is already exploring alternate mechanisms such as legislative channels to increase its wherewithal in the region rather than relying on its swelling military prowess.
In the meeting earlier this month, former PM Taro Aso met with Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an of the Kuomintang, Taiwan’s largest opposition party, where among several issues, they discussed the best selling Japanese manga ‘One Piece’. Blackbeard, a fictional character in the same series can be quoted as saying, “When you aim high, you often come across fights that just aren't worth fighting.” Whether Japan is able to set its aims higher and choose its battles wisely, is a question only time will answer.
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