The Green Gets Redder: Trump’s Climate Comeback
Just days after his second coming, Donald Trump has picked Lee Zeldin to lead the Environment Protection Agency. Zeldin is a staunch supporter of Trump’s policies and is likely to share similar sentiments on environmental issues as well. In his first term, Trump reportedly reversed over a 100 environmental laws, and has some famously controversial takes on the environment and climate change. This begs the question as to what his next term will bring, and what the repercussions will be for countries who have joint ventures in the climate action and energy space with the United States. For India, financial commitments and joint ventures targeting renewable energy initiatives might be at risk.
A mere glance at what the Trump administration did in his first term reveals his scepticism about climate science and emphasis on ‘energy dominance’. Much of what is considered factual, such as the consequences of fossil fuel emissions, was dismissed as a hoax. In addition to withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Agreement– which he has vowed to do again- Trump also repealed the Clean Power Plan, a key policy Obama put in place. Trump also promoted the use of fossil fuel production and opened up many previously restricted untapped areas for drilling, including certain portions of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Additionally, over 100 environmental regulations were weakened and repealed.
The Biden administration, on the other hand, was more focused on addressing climate change as both a domestic and global issue. On his first day in office, President Biden rejoined the Paris agreement, and went on to set ambitious targets for emission reduction. Biden also put the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into place, which directed over 370 billion dollars to clean energy investments. He also restored regulations that Trump had removed that had been established since the Obama era, focused on regulating the oil and gas industry’s methane emissions. In addition to these significant initiatives, there were multiple executive orders and clean energy ventures that prioritised environmental and climate action. The coming weeks will be telling of how many of these initiatives Trump intends to remove.
Despite Donald Trump’s disbelief, climate change is a very real problem, and the United States a major contributor to it. As of 2021, the US emitted around 5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide annually (approximately twice as much as China and eight times India). Historically, the US has contributed more than any other country to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. In April 2021, the US pledged to reduce emissions by roughly 50 percent below the levels in 2005 by 2030, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Trump’s focus on becoming dominant in the energy sector and ‘drill baby drill’ attitude towards fossil fuels will effectively throw these targets into jeopardy, if he does not announce that he will do so himself.
In addition to the repercussions of Trump’s environmental policies on the environment itself and the US economy, there is likely to be a far-reaching impact on countries that currently have partnerships with the United States in the realm of climate and energy. From an Indian perspective, the last few years have seen collaboration on multiple fronts with the Biden administration that now may be at risk. Currently, India and the US have a high-level partnership in place called the US-India Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 Partnership that prioritises achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. If Trump once again extracts the United States from the agreement, it will likely affect the partnership and hinder India’s efforts to achieve its objectives. The two countries also initiated the Climate Action and Finance Mobilization Dialogue (CAFMD) in 2021, which focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions through climate action, and facilitates financial mobilisation for renewable energy projects. Given Trump’s propensity towards prioritising energy dominance and mining for oil and gas, this too is likely to be put on the back burner, if not wholly shelved.
Additionally, if precedence is any indication, Trump is also likely to be sceptical of multilateral finance focused on climate action and renewable energy. India is likely to see sizable reductions in any financial contributions they receive from the United States for their climate initiatives. In his 2024 election campaign, Trump even pledged to cancel unspent funds from Biden’s climate law.
Given the volatility of the situation and President Trump’s notorious unpredictability, India and other partners must proactively adapt their strategies in light of the potential roll-back of US support that may come. Additionally, they should also establish and strengthen independent climate partnerships. Irrespective of political cycles, climate change is and will continue to be a pressing and irreversible issue that needs to be tackled both locally and globally if there is to be a fair chance at mitigating its impact.
This blog will be updated with more ideas.
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