Citizenship Law and NRC Issue can Strain India’s Ties With its Most Important Neighbour — Bangladesh

The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the foreign policy implications of the Citizenship Amendment Bill and the National Register of Indian Citizens: CAB, NRC, Kashmir: Is Modi govt damaging India’s diplomatic standing for domestic politics? ‘Neighbourhood first’ was supposed to be the guiding principle of Modi government’s foreign policy. But all three measures — the new citizenship law, NRC and Kashmir issue — are examples of policy actions that are likely to have adverse outcomes for India’s interests in the region.The amended citizenship law and the NRC issue will put strains on India’s relations with its most important neighbour in the Indian subcontinent — Bangladesh. In 2018, Bangladesh emerged as India’s largest export market for Indian-made two-wheelers. Bangladesh has also surpassed Pakistan in terms of GDP per capita. The 2011 census data shows that illegal migration from there is reducing — it a stock problem from the past and not a flow problem of the present. Most importantly, the Sheikh Hasina government is one of the few steadfast pro-India formations in the neighbourhood. Unfortunately, the signal being sent to other leaders in the region is that taking pro-India positions might turn out to be a loss-making proposition.In the case of Kashmir, Pakistan will try to use the Article 370 issue to drive a wedge between the US and India. From Pakistan’s standpoint, returning to the India-Pakistan hyphenation era in the eyes of the US is desirable. From India’s viewpoint, the more Pakistan features in India’s foreign policy outlook, the less energy it has for confronting the more significant global challenges.Read the entire discussion on ThePrint.in website here. 

The opinion of Western liberals or conservatives is inconsequential for the J&K situation at this point

The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the unofficial trip of twenty-seven European Union MPs to Jammu and Kashmir: Modi govt allows mostly far-Right EU MPs to J&K: Smart diplomacy to counter Western liberals?The Indian government has lost the plot if this unofficial trip is being held to ‘counter Western liberals’. The opinion of Western liberals or conservatives is inconsequential for the situation in J&K at this point.The fact remains that the situation there is not normal. It is in a volatile security situation abetted by Pakistan, exacerbated by the absence of legitimate political channels, prolonged restrictions on communications, a weak economic infrastructure, and an inadequate administrative capacity. The real challenge before the government then is to manage this security situation while rebooting the economic and political mechanisms quickly. Even a favourable report by this MEP delegation will have zero impact on solving this challenge. In fact, it will lead to rounds of trips and counter-trips, needless distractions given the delicate and tense situation on the ground.Even from a moral standpoint, this visit is problematic as Indian politicians have been disallowed from visiting the valley. Several local politicians still remain under detention.Hence, the visit is unlikely to change perception domestically or internationally. Moreover, it goes against the long-held Indian position that political developments in J&K are an internal matter of the Republic of India.Read the entire discussion on ThePrint.in website here.

On Trump's Kashmir comment

ThePrint's daily roundtable Talkpoint posed a question related to PM Modi's conversation with US President Trump on the latter's offer to mediate on the Kashmir issue. The question was: Is PM Modi allowing Trump to play policeman in India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir?My response:Policeman is an incorrect metaphor to use. The act of policing involves ensuring compliance with an underlying rule of law. No such enforceable force of law exists in the domain of international relations. Instead, power is the currency in international relations. It is precisely for this reason that Trump’s stance and actions on India-Pakistan tensions are important following the Narendra Modi government’s move to abrogate Article 370.The real issue then is how the Modi government can deal with a powerful stakeholder like Trump now. While India needs the US in order to increase its own economic and military power, the US-China structural rivalry makes India a very important player in the US strategic calculation. Pakistan doesn’t feature in any of these forces driving the India-US equation.For its part, Pakistan will try to use the Kashmir issue to drive a wedge between the US and India. From Pakistan’s standpoint, returning to the India-Pakistan hyphenation era in the eyes of the US is desirable. And given Pakistan’s role in the ongoing talks between the US and the Taliban, Pakistan’s case is likely to carry more weight than it otherwise would. India’s challenge will be to continue isolating the US-India relationship from the ongoing India-Pakistan dynamic. This task will become more challenging if the security situation in Kashmir worsens.Read other views on ThePrint here.