Mint | India's employment challenge: 20 million jobs need to be created each year

A number of analysts attribute the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) underperformance in the general election to voter unhappiness with the Narendra Modi government over unemployment, job reservations and farmer livelihoods. 

The Agnipath scheme of military recruitment came in for criticism during the election campaign and many political commentators expect that the new government will be compelled to make changes to it. We should view interpretations of election results with some scepticism, but it does appear that the issue of inadequate employment opportunities has bubbled up to the surface of our political ocean.

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There’s a jobs crisis. Acknowledge it

Every year, India’s annual Budget is elevated from a mundane accounting exercise to a statement of intent and priorities of the government at the helm. The Budget speech made by the finance minister (FM) is scrutinised to check how many times a particular sector, industry or policy issue is mentioned to gauge the government’s priorities and preferences. Jobs, by the way, was mentioned three times in the Budget speech this year.

In the speech, the FM mentioned there were initiatives in the pipeline that could create six million jobs over the next five years. That is, an average of 1.2 million jobs each year. While there is a minor sense of relief that the government is finally taking cognisance of the jobs problem (instead of relying on pakora wallahs), unfortunately, the overwhelming feeling is that of inadequacy. The vague pronouncement betrays the government’s lack of appreciation of the magnitude of the jobs problem.

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What Explains the High Demand for Low Paying Government Jobs?

My hypothesis is that this can be explained by three factors:

1. The number of private jobs available is obviously too few. Job creation has stagnated and even receded in the private sector. Thus, the industry does not have the capacity to absorb a large number of graduates and post-graduates who are passing out of the system. Since the supply of labour far outstrips the demand for labour, employees have increasingly stringent qualification requirements. Only the best of the lot get a good, high paying job in the private sector.
2. There is also an obvious skills mismatch. A lot of the students who pass through the Indian education system are not as qualified as their degrees tend to signal. A typical Post-Graduate often has the skills of a person who has passed the 12^th grade and thus, cannot obtain or at least retain a high paying job which would require the skills of a Post-Graduate (One report, for instance, finds that nearly 80% of the engineering graduates in India are unemployable as their skills set do not match the requirement of the industry). What further complicates this issue and turns it into a vicious cycle is the fact that a lot of individuals end up studying due to the lack of job opportunities. These are students who enter into an educational programme solely due to the signalling value and to differentiate themselves from the nearest competitors. However, while the degree gained has some signalling value, the skills gained are inadequate for industry standards.
3. A person who has gained a degree but not the appropriate skills cannot get a job in the private sector which will assure a reasonably high salary and job security. The private sector option is typically a low paying job, which can be lost at any time and with no benefits. Given this scenario, a government job that is assured of job security, even at the cost of a lower salary seems attractive.

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But What About the Jobs Crisis?

There was a big push for the MSMEs in this year’s budget. The Finance Minister emphatically stated that “Medium, Small and Micro Enterprises (MSMEs) are a major engine of growth and employment in the country,” and went on to allocate Rs 3794 crores (quite a small number) to the MSME Sector for giving credit support, capital and interest subsidy and innovations. This was lauded by many as a policy push in the right direction.

The wide-ranging consensus on the importance of MSMEs in India is impressive. There is near universality in declaring MSMEs to be the engine of economic growth in India and the driver of job creation. Just for clarity on terminology, a micro enterprise employs less than 10 people, a small enterprise less than 50 people and a medium enterprise less than 300 people. This definition is according to the World Bank, though countries often classify them according to the initial investment (India), turnover, and other criteria.

There are numerous reports, even by reputed consulting firms, that speak about the benefits of MSMEs. The reasoning for this is often fallacious. “MSMEs will generate employment in the future, because they provide employment now” is the general reasoning. Imagine if the same thinking persisted in the 1800s when horse carts were the main form of transportation and a major source of employment – chances are that there would be no investment in the railways at all.

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