Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
Deccan Herald | India’s waning interest in Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
By Amit Kumar and Vanshika Saraf
China's military exercises highlight regional tensions as Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te asserts sovereignty. His recent remarks signal a policy shift, encouraging potential cooperation with Beijing, despite ongoing tensions. Lai’s statements challenge China’s role as a peace broker in global conflicts.
By Amit Kumar and Vanshika Saraf
Read the full article here.
Nikkei Asia | China isn't ready to shift to a consumption-driven economy
By Amit Kumar
Investment-led export-oriented approach has acquired further salience under Xi
By Amit Kumar
Read the full article here.
The Hindu | Power asymmetry between China and Russia
By Amit Kumar
As supplies from Moscow’s traditional partners have dried up under sanctions and Russia’s domestic capacity remains stretched, China has stepped up to help its friend. Compared to 2021, when high-priority goods from China accounted for 32% of Russia’s import needs, China’s share soared to 89% in 2023
By Amit Kumar
Read the full article here.
The Diplomat | The US Can Accelerate India’s Rise as a Legacy Chip Hub
By Satya Sahu and Amit Kumar
Friendshoring supply chains for legacy chips to countries like India is likely the most feasible long-term solution for the West in the face of China’s dominance.
By Satya Sahu and Amit Kumar
Read the full article here.
Nikkei Asia | India is well placed to become the 'next China' and drive global growth
By Amit Kumar
Nation faces opportunities and challenges in becoming an economic powerhouse
Read the full article here.
The Hindu | India-China consumption comparison
By Amit Kumar
In 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. The development came against the backdrop of a declining birth rate (6.4 births per 1,000 people) and total fertility rate (~1%) in China. China also recorded a negative population growth rate for the first time in six decades. This means a rising dependency ratio, which is projected to increase over time. In contrast, India’s population, despite reaching replacement levels (total fertility rate of 2.1), is expected to grow and peak around 2060. Read the article here.
Firstpost | How recent Maldives parliamentary election results are a silver lining for India
By Amit Kumar
In a clear endorsement of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s policies so far, the country voted his party’s People’s National Congress (PNC) to a two-third majority in the 93-member house in the latest parliamentary elections. With this win, Muizzu’s party now wields power both in the executive and the legislature, thereby allowing him to steer domestic and foreign policy with little opposition. Read the full article here.
The Indian Express | Warmer Moscow-Beijing ties are a chilling signal for New Delhi
By Manoj Kewalramani & Amit Kumar
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to China was brief but significant. On the face of it, Lavrov was in Beijing to set the stage for an anticipated trip by President Vladimir Putin in May. To that end, he met China’s President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Amidst the usual diplomatic pleasantries, three outcomes that emerged are particularly important from India’s perspective. Read the full article here.
Foreign Policy | The Hidden Dangers in China’s GDP Numbers
By Amit Kumar
China’s recently announced GDP target for 2024 remains unchanged from last year, at 5 percent. But even if the country hits that number, its economic problems run deep. In January, China published economic data for the last quarter of 2023 which put its annual GDP growth rate at 5.2 percent, beating the government target. Yet, to put things in perspective, China’s real GDP growth rate from 2011 to 2019 averaged 7.3 percent while 2001-10 saw average growth of 10.5 percent. Read the full article here.
Moneycontrol | India gains semiconductor momentum but the policy mix can be even better
By Amit Kumar & Satya Sahu
On February 29, the Indian government approved three semiconductor units worth Rs 1.26 lakh crore including a fabrication plant by Tata Electronics Private Limited (TEPL) in partnership with Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) in Dholera. The other two units include Assembly Testing Marking & Packaging (ATMP) plants to be set up by Tata Semiconductor Assembly and Test Private Limited (TSAT) in Morigaon and CG Powers in Sanand. The Cabinet’s clearance of the three projects demonstrates its commitment to integration into the semiconductor Global Value Chain (GVC). The hitherto hesitant private sector has also exhibited the resolve to venture into an unfamiliar manufacturing segment that hasn't historically been India’s forte. Together with the US-headquartered Micron’s ATMP unit in Gujarat, these announcements herald a new era in India's semiconductor strategy. Read the full article here.
Moneycontrol - Biden-Xi Summit: Challenge is to continue US-China engagements despite tensions
By Manoj Kewalramani & Amit Kumar
Leaders of the United States and China are expected to hold their first bilateral meeting in a year at the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco today. The fact that this meeting is taking place is in itself a significant achievement for diplomats on both sides. It also underscores that despite the intense nature of Sino-US strategic competition and heated rhetoric, achieving some sort of stability is a shared interest. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi captured this in outlining the “Five Musts” for the two countries during his recent visit to the US. Read the full article here.
Moneycontrol | Growing US-China chip rivalry presents India with its geopolitical moment
By Satya S Sahu & Amit Kumar
In the US-China geopolitical tussle, 2022 was a watershed moment. In August, Washington unveiled the CHIPS and Science Act and followed it up with chip export controls in October, setting the tone for an intense rivalry in emerging and critical technologies with semiconductors at the forefront. The CHIPS and Science Act had but one objective: reshoring chip manufacturing back in the US from East Asia, where 85 percent of the current global fabrication capacity is concentrated. The export controls aimed to restrict China's access to advanced semiconductors and keep Chinese chip manufacturing capabilities behind the US by at least a decade. The controls also imposed restrictions on foreign companies operating in China, which relied on technology and capital sourced from the US. Read the full article here.
The Quint | India-US Ties: Despite Nijjar Storm, All’s Well on the Western Front
By Amit Kumar
Washington’s perceived 'harsh response’ to the India-Canada fracas has sparked both suspicion and pessimism in some quarters in India. Skeptics have sought to highlight the unreliability of the US as a partner while pessimists have argued that this incident is likely to press the US to re-evaluate its relationship with India. Read the full article here.
The Hindu | The signals from this ‘Made in China’ smartphone story
By Amit Kumar
Huawei, the Chinese smartphone giant, has created ripples within the strategic and business community with its newly unveiled Mate 60 Pro which houses the Kirin 9000 processor. The chipset reportedly used Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)’s second-generation 7nm fabrication technique, thereby demonstrating China’s capability to manufacture a 7nm chip. Read the full article here.
Hindustan Times | In the chip war, US has the edge over China
By Amit Kumar and Pranay Kotasthane
As a countermeasure to a series of US-led tech restrictions, China’s ministry of commerce and general administration of customs recently announced export controls on industrial products and materials containing two critical elements — Gallium (Ga) and Germanium (Ge). The export of these elements will now be subject to governmental clearance. The ministry justified the restriction on national security grounds, owing to the elements’ dual-use nature. Read the full article here.
The Hindu | China’s ‘developmental’ security approach
By Amit Kumar
The story so far: Late in May this year, the Cyberspace Administration of China announced that the U.S. chip giant Micron, which had been under investigation by the Cybersecurity Review Office, failed to obtain a security clearance, and that its products posed a threat to national security. Consequently, business operators tied to critical information infrastructure were advised not to procure Micron products. This is the latest incident in a series of crackdowns by the Chinese government against American consultancies and domestic firms dealing with overseas clients. Read the full article here.