Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
The Indian Express | India-China border agreement: Five reasons to be cautiously optimistic
By Manoj Kewalramani
The announcement is just the first step in a long process of normalisation of the situation along the boundary areas. For starters, the agreement needs to be implemented on the ground, with patrolling becoming normalised
By Manoj Kewalramani
Read the full article here.
Money Control | Quad, through Chinese lens
By Manoj Kewalramani
Chinese opinions on the Quad converge on one point, that it’s a US-led tool of containment. However, there are mixed opinions on the effectiveness of the wider Quad agenda. On India, Chinese portrayal depicts the country as an opportunistic and wavering partner of the US
By Manoj Kewalramani
Read the full article here.
The Hindu | Perils of decentralisation with Chinese characteristics
By Pranay Kotasthane & Manoj Kewalramani
Decentralisation, once celebrated as a reason for China’s economic miracle, seems to have now turned counter-productive
By Pranay Kotasthane & Manoj Kewalramani
Read the full article here.
The Indian Express | Why normalcy in India-China ties is likely to stay elusive
By Manoj Kewalramani
Complete disengagement and de-escalation in Eastern Ladakh can provide a starting point for steps to be taken in other domains. Achieving this requires sustained and often frustrating dialogue at multiple levels to devise a roadmap of action
Read the full article here.
Firstpost | Putin’s North Korea visit making China uneasy
By Manoj Kewalramani and Aadit Pareek
Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang has sent a signal to Beijing that Moscow has other allies too.
Read the full article here.
Ideology in Xi’s China: The role of nationalism
Through the decades of reform and opening up, the impulse of nationalism dominated popular ideological discourse. It, along with economic performance, served as the key pillars shoring-up the Party’s legitimacy. Two events were decisive in shaping this direction. The first was the Tiananmen Square crisis of 1989, which threatened the Party’s ruling legitimacy. The second was Deng Xiaoping’s 1992 Southern Tour, which signalled an end to internal jostling over the direction of economic policy. Growth at any cost would now become the primary policy driver for the Party. This subsequent patriotic education campaign, of course, had a key role to play in this process too, along with key domestic and international developments.Read the full article in Hindustan Times.
The role of ideology in Xi Jinping’s China
There is an increasing sense around the world that under Xi Jinping, the Communist Party of China has doubled down on ideology. This is seen as a distinct turn away from the pragmatism that Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up had engendered. The argument goes that emerging from the failure of the Great Leap Forward and the subsequent chaos of the Cultural Revolution, Deng reoriented the Party’s mission away from class warfare and revolution towards economic prosperity. In this quest, he restructured the Party’s organisational system and redefined its relationship with the state, capital and society, loosening controls. Policies through the decades of reform and opening up, for many, had implied that China had begun transitioning to a post-ideological society, where ideological discourse provided a rhetorical connection to communism and socialism but lacked substance. This is the trend that has seemingly regressed or been rectified, depending on one’s viewpoint, with the emergence of Xi Jinping Thought as China’s guiding ideology after the 19th Party Congress in 2017.There are, of course, fundamental changes that are taking place in China under Xi Jinping. For instance, there is indeed greater discussion about inheriting red genes, the vitality of socialism and the superiority of the socialist system, and the goal of common prosperity. These are certainly also impacting policies with regard to the Party organisation, the role of private capital, approach to economic reform and social security policies. However, the argument that there is a return of ideology is epistemologically on shaky ground. Such an assessment, in fact, is a fundamental misinterpretation of the political evolution of the Chinese Party-state system. In part, this misinterpretation has been the product of the manner in which observers have approached the concept of ideology, and in part, it is a product of misreading the essential impulses that shape the Party’s ideology.Read the full article here in Hindustan Times
One Year On, Assessing the Ban on Chinese Apps
For CCP, the Era of Seeking Strength
On July 1, even as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) marks its centenary, it has sought to use the moment to catalyse the march towards the goals of “socialist modernisation” and “national rejuvenation”. According to the Party’s, and indeed Xi Jinping’s, historical narrative, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) entered a new era after the 19th Party Congress in 2017. If earlier periods were marked by efforts to “stand up” and then “grow rich”, the new era is marked by the country “becoming strong”. Examining Xi’s speeches, Party regulations, the government’s economic policies and official media discourse, one can identify some of the key features that characterise this era of seeking strength.Read the full article in Hindustan Times. Views are personal
Five Trends in India-China Ties a Year after the Galwan Valley clash
The June 2020 clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers in the Galwan Valley has frequently been termed as a watershed moment in the history of bilateral relations. The incident marked the first loss of life in conflict along the boundary between the two countries in over four decades. A year later, while some equations have shifted, there has not been a sudden break — rather, ties appear to be drifting towards greater contestation with a certain ambivalence evident on both sides. This is underscored by five key trends.Read the full article in the Quint here.
In India’s Covid-19 challenge, China’s hopes and anxieties
The second wave of Covid-19 in India has been among the biggest international stories being covered across the Chinese media. The coverage reflects a sense of anxiety and opportunity.In terms of the former, there is concern about the spread of the so-called double mutant, or B.1.617 strain of the virus across the region and into China. A fresh wave of domestic outbreaks would be deeply damaging for the Communist Party, which declared victory against the virus last year, and would take a toll on China’s economic recovery. Likewise, a massive public health crisis across the Indian subcontinent, at the minimum, would hurt Chinese commercial interests and investments. At worst, it could result in a humanitarian catastrophe with the potential to stoke socio-political instability along China’s periphery.At the same time, the situation in India presents opportunities for Beijing. At the bare minimum, there is a commercial opportunity, given the shortage of emergency supplies, equipment and therapeutics. But, at a deeper level, there are geopolitical opportunities. This is reflected in the Chinese media’s critical coverage of the delayed response by the Joe Biden administration, the emphasis on China’s manufacturing prowess and its centrality to key supply chains, and foreign minister Wang Yi’s summit with his South Asian counterparts, which focused on health supplies and vaccines.
In West Asia, where US and China’s interests intersect
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s recent six-nation tour of West Asia has sparked discussions about Beijing’s taking a more active approach in the region. In part, this is driven by China’s expanding interests; in part, it is a product of the China-United States (US) competition and geopolitical churn underway after Joe Biden’s election.Read the full article in the Hindustan Times.
What's behind China's Wolf Warrior Diplomacy?
China’s imposition of punitive sanctions on EU institutions and individuals over Xinjiang, its attacks on the West’s colonial past when discussing human rights and the recent outburst by Yang Jiechi during the dialogue in Anchorage have all re-ignited discussions over Beijing’s assertive diplomacy. In fact, throughout the past year, there has been much debate about the increasing abrasiveness of Chinese diplomats.
How India and Israel can lead the way on 5G collaboration
Despite the evident opportunities, 5G deployment globally hasn’t been without challenges. Superpower competition, costly infrastructure, and slow application development are holding back development. India and Israel can, together, leverage their strengths to collaborate in areas such application development, building networks of trust, and future research and development and unleash the possibilities of 5G for their citizens.Read the full article in Hindustan Times.
In its centenary year, the CCP’s revisionist history
In July, the Communist Party of China (CCP) will celebrate its centenary. This is the most important event in the CCP’s political calendar. It presents an opportunity for the leadership to highlight developmental achievements, which are seen as critical to its legitimacy. Economic development, however, is one of many factors that feed the algorithm of legitimacy. Viewing the question of legitimacy simply from a transactional prism of the party ensuring developmental outcomes in exchange for obedience is reductive, resulting in a misunderstanding of what sustains CCP rule in China. History, or more precisely, building and guiding a supportive historical narrative is crucial too.Read the full article in Hindustan Times here.
Jack Ma story: China’s deep strategic ambition
Earlier this month, the Chinese tech tycoon, Jack Ma, made his first public appearance ever since the suspension of Ant Group’s $37 billion IPO in November. Ant is an affiliate company of Alibaba, the e-commerce giant that he co-founded. The crackdown on Ant followed Jack Ma’s comments in late October during a public event in Shanghai. He had then criticised Chinese regulators for harbouring a “pawnshop mentality,” focusing on pledges and collaterals when it came to finance.
Weaning away foreign investment from China
Over the past few years, there has been much discussion about India attracting firms that might be seeking to exit China. Initially, these conversations were driven by changes in the Chinese economy, such as rising labour costs, shifting focus towards new technologies and declining productivity. There was a sense that these changes, coupled with improving infrastructure and ease of doing business in India, would make India an attractive option.
Decoding the DC-Brussels-Beijing geopolitical triangle
Joe Biden’s election as the United States (US) president has led to talk of greater coordination between Washington and Brussels over China. In early November, European Union (EU) foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell was quick to call for “a coherent and robust China stance” between the transatlantic allies. Biden, meanwhile, has promised to consult traditional allies to “develop a coherent strategy” on China.Read the full article in Hindustan Times.
China’s Economy May Be ‘Slowing Down’, But Don’t Write Off BRI Yet
Ever since it was launched, there’s been a raging debate about the sustainability of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Conventionally, these conversations take shape depending on where you stand. In other words, depending on one’s ideological and geopolitical prism, BRI is either a grand strategic plan that is reshaping the global political and economic order or an example of Xi Jinping’s hubris, which is leading to overreach, and will eventually collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. A new Financial Times report this week, highlighting a sharp decline in Chinese overseas lending, sparked another such debate.Read the full article in The Quint.
China wants a reset with Biden, but won’t change its approach
There has been much debate about why China was slow to acknowledge Joe Biden’s election victory. It took nearly a week after Biden’s victory speech for China’s foreign ministry to issue formal congratulations. Xi Jinping is among the few world leaders who still hasn’t spoken to Biden. Despite that, Beijing has been watching the unfolding political drama in the United States (US) with a sense of cautious optimism.Read the full article in the Hindustan Times.