The Print | China benefits from US involvement in Ukraine & Gaza. India must tread carefully

In the context of the ongoing geopolitical contestation between the West and China, keeping the US engaged in Ukraine and Gaza will only benefit Beijing in the long run.

By Lt Gen Prakash Menon

Read the full article here.

The Print | India is walking a geopolitical tightrope. It can shape New Delhi’s diplomatic power

India’s stance on the Ukraine war has brought it closer to Russia. India has also managed to strengthen relations with the US and its allies, a feat that reflects India’s growing global clout

By Lt Gen Prakash Menon

Read the full article here.

The Print | PM Modi’s absence from the SCO summit weakens India’s power as a swing state

Even as it keeps India tied up in the Himalayas, China is focused on the Indo-Pacific. Swing state diplomacy is India’s counter to this game plan.

Read the full article here.

India’s new CDS will have to decide where the loyalty of the military lies

The tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, in a helicopter crash along with 13 others including his wife Madhulika Rawat, his staff, protection party, and the aircrew was shocking. Happening at a time of heightened global and regional geopolitical tensions, it can be a setback to the laudable and long-overdue structural defence reforms initiated in January 2020 by the Narendra Modi government. The reforms were aimed at improving military effectiveness through restructuring measures in two primary domains: civil-military relations and inter-services cooperation. While history will be the ultimate judge of General Rawat’s legacy in both, his role in the changes devised in some aspects of civil-military relations is likely to be the most contentious.

Delay in appointing new CDS after Gen. Rawat—Is it about passing the loyalty test?

The sudden and tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, along with twelve others in a helicopter crash is a mortal blow by the hand of fate. Ironically, the CDS’ demise also reverberates across the fate of some senior military leaders who might find themselves being either advantaged or disadvantaged in terms of career progression. Depending on whosoever among the eligible is appointed, a chain reaction along the military hierarchy could change individual fates. Eligibility for the CDS post has been shaped to provide the political leadership to select from a fairly wide range of choices in two domains— serving and retired. The external choice is restricted to former Chiefs not above the age of sixty-five. The internal choice can even be a three-star. So technically, all serving three or four stars are eligible. This is as wide a choice as can be. So, till the announcement of the appointment is made, speculation and conspiracy theories can be expected to run riot.

How to prevent accidental wars? Strongmen Putin, Xi, Modi can be triggers

The virtual meeting on 15 November between Presidents Joe Biden of the US and Xi Jinping of China could hopefully be the forerunner to a dialogue process that was so far missing in action. The relationship had turned openly hostile, and the drift towards armed conflict due to misjudgement and miscommunication needed repair. Some political and military leaders had been warning of the risk of an accidental war—a possibility that could have driven both leaders to acknowledge the danger.

Farm Laws lays bare India’s Internal Disunity. It’s Time to Fix it

To some Indians, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise announcement about repealing the three farm laws may be viewed as a victory for democracy. The forces at play in the political economy may have demonstrated their democratic strength. But India might have lost. For, there is no dispute that India’s economically and strategically important agriculture sector is in dire need of reform. Another thing that India needs to watch out for is that a weakened government, civil unrest, and inability to carry forward important economic reforms can all be exploited by foes.

India’s Coal Stance at COP26 was about Money-Party Politics Poses Danger to Long-Term Goals

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, or the COP26, concluded in Glasgow on 13 November. India’s stand on coal birthed a narrative that projected an image of being a ‘hold-out’. China was a hold-out as well, but in terms of image, it managed to stay in the shadow. The light was more on India.

A single phrase struck a deal between India, China and the US. In all probability, there must be more than a grain of truth in it. That phrase was ‘out or down’. To put it in context, it must relate to the common word ‘phase’. The option was about the ‘phase-out’ or ‘phase-down’ of the use of coal. Prior to the contention raised in relation to coal, the US and China—the two largest contributors to climate change and also the largest coal polluters—had used the word ‘phase down’ in a mutual agreement signed between them. India (as the third-largest coal polluter) and China insisted on ‘phase down’ in the final declaration, which could only then be passed unanimously. Both held onto the word and the US made it possible. India may have won its battle but could be poised to lose the larger war.

Read the full article in ThePrint

Why PM Modi in Army uniform distracts from India’s real goals

Civilian leaders in military uniform are an attraction unmatched by any other clothing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worn one every Diwali since the India-China confrontation at Doklam in 2017. This year, he spent some time with the Army and addressed troops at Jammu’s Rajouri, not far from the Line of Control. He was dressed in an Army camouflage jacket and a red-banded hat, worn by Colonels and above. He wore an Indian Army emblem as the crownpiece, so to say, in the middle of the red band around the hat. No rank badges were worn.

The Prime Minister’s oratorical skills and the speech delivered in his inimitable style would have touched the hearts of the troops and uplifted their morale. ‘We are lucky to have a leader like Modi’ would perhaps be a lasting memory for those who saw him in flesh and blood. Even for those who would see it on video, and especially for the millions of his supporters across the world, it would have had a similar effect.

Read the full article in ThePrint

China’s hypersonic missile test got US, India racing. It exposes BMD vulnerability

China has carried out a test of a new space capability with a hypersonic missile, as reported first by The Financial Times. The test was supposedly carried out secretly in August 2021. The report relied on experts of the US intelligence community and could be a deliberate leak. It managed to touch the most sensitive cord of any nation’s strategic community—potential vulnerability.

A barrage of commentaries soon littered the information landscape. It mattered little that the development did not create a vulnerability in the Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) of the US or any other nation that is deploying it. The vulnerability already existed, and all the efforts of creating a BMD system have been chasing their tail since 2001—when the US had unleashed the BMD arms race as it withdrew from the 1972 Ballistic Missile Defense Treaty with the Soviet Union. The Financial Times report indicated that the US has now been disadvantaged by China’s technological progress. It sits easily with the larger narrative of Beijing’s growing technological and military capability.

Read the full article in ThePrint

What I learnt about Digital India when I decided to buy a TV from defence canteen stores

India has seen a dream of Digital India. From the latest science to the latest technology, everything should be available at the tip of one’s finger.’ This is one among the many popular quotes from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Eventually, what matters is the ease with which Indian citizens can fulfil their material needs. But unless the existing practices of ‘filling forms’ are simplified, the ‘Digital India’ dream cannot be realised.

The majority who are not digitally proficient and lack the means to get assistance are unable to partake of the dream. Despite extensive efforts at digitisation, the tip of the finger has to still confront old and redundant information gathering and analytical processes. Previously, the filling of forms was physical, now it is digital. The change has bypassed the fundamental purpose of change – ease of transaction. A recent experience is illustrative.

Read the full article here

Neither MoD nor MHA can resolve the unacceptable state of affairs on Indo-Tibetan Border

The Indo-Tibetan border continues to be actively problematic and the trajectory of the current geopolitical events seem to indicate that politico-military tensions will endure. The lack of progress in the 13^th India-China Corps Commanders talks and the two military incidents in Tawang and Barahoti are but symptoms of the continuing tensions. Conflict in its varied forms is on the cards. Yet, India’s political leadership and national security practitioners seem to be blind to the dangers posed and opportunities missed in effectively manning the active border.Read the full article in ThePrint

Make Public India’s Doctrine on use of Force, it’ll Dispel notion that we are Non-Committal

The strategic community might have received more cud to chew on when an independent and multidisciplinary Indian group released a Discussion Document titled ‘India’s Path to Power – Strategy in a World Adrift’. on 2 October. In 2011, several members of this group were associated with Non-Alignment 2.0. It says: “The guiding premise of the present document is that India’s external and internal environments are now being shaped by tectonic shifts—incipient trends that require thinking afresh and calibrating India’s strategy on a broad front. A new world needs new ideas from time to time….This document is an effort to focus our attention on the need for concentrated strategic thought and encouraging a debate about the hard choices that confront India in the decade ahead.”

Adopting the perspective of a decade, the strategic compass of the document attempts to steer India’s path to power through the realisation of its potential in a world adrift in the waters of growing geopolitical tensions that could severely test India’s statecraft. Adopting a strategic approach is imperative and doing the right things paramount in contrast to just doing it right. The writings on India’s geopolitical wall are seemingly ominous, and what the country decides about the role of force may take centre stage. Without it, India’s development of military power and its application could cost us dearly.

Read the full article in The Print.

I could serve the Indian Army thanks to IAF ‘bounce’ party 50 years ago

The 1971 War gifted the 49th Regular Course at the Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, three additional months of commissioned service. Our commissioning was advanced to 31 March 1972, instead of June that year, to make up for the war causalities. The losses had bequeathed the benefit of early commissioning to about 350 of us. Later, it became a topic of debate among our coursemates whether the benefit we enjoyed was at a cost to the Army. Some thought that the three months of training lost had often shown up in the overall performance of the batch.

While such debates will continue life long, here is a personal story that wouldn’t have been the same, had it not been for the Indian Air Force (IAF). As the IAF celebrates its raising on 8 October, I say “cheers” to them.

Read the full article in ThePrint

Australia may have opened the door for India. Like Rafale, a submarine deal is critical

Fear, it seems, is the reigning global emotion and is reflected in innumerable speeches at the seventy-sixth United Nations General Assembly session. The dangers posed to humanity by climate change, extremism, and human and women’s rights violations were seated in the front row of the hall of fear. Cooperation was a popular antidote. The problem is that global geopolitics is currently afflicted by a surge in confrontations, especially between the United States and China — the big powers.

Power balancing is the name of the game and both are in search of partners. Middle powers in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific cannot possibly escape the shadows cast by the global and regional struggle for domination. India’s geographic endowments make it a prisoner of forces at play in both geographies. The Eurasian geopolitical struggle is for India, a primarily continental one, while the Indo-Pacific struggle is maritime. Striking a balance between the two is one of the central challenges of India’s national security strategy.

Read the full article in ThePrint

Gen Rawat’s ‘clash of civilisation’ row shows military should be seen but not heard in press

On September 15, the Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat posed a question before a gathering of Delhi’s strategic community. He asked them, rhetorically, whether China’s growing engagement with Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan would lead to the rebooting of the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ theory with the Chinese and Islamic civilisations joining against the Western world? The query raised by the CDS was part of an intellectual discourse and not, by any standards, a policy statement. But the media reported it as such and ended up seeding a controversy during a sensitive phase in China-India relations.

A day later, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar chose to clarify the doubt before his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Dushanbe: “India had never subscribed to any clash of civilisations theory”. But the CDS, who is no stranger to controversies, again found himself at the receiving end. The episode raises questions about civil-military-media relations that need scrutiny.

Read the full article in ThePrint

Afghanistan and Pakistan are in a strategic embrace that cannot have a happy ending

A theocratic oligarchy consisting mostly of United Nations-designated terrorists is going to hold the reins of power in Afghanistan. To oversee the formation of an ‘interim’ government, Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed had flown to Kabul. The interim government had even been announced but the sudden cancellation of the swearing-in shows there are tussles in the upper echelons of the Taliban, which Pakistan must handle with care. Lack of experience in governance is another issue that Pakistan is trying to solve, with reports indicating that guidance will be provided by ISI-nominated Pakistani bureaucrats, technocrats, professional military, and police personnel. For sure, the Punjabi Musalman from Pakistan will, sooner rather than later, rub the wrong side of the Afghan Pathan.Pakistan and Afghanistan are now politically and strategically inseparable. They are both backed by China, which has announced a $31 million financial assistance that can, at best, provide limited relief, unless followed by continuous and larger benevolence. The international institutions that are mostly under the United States’ control are unlikely to be of help, except for providing humanitarian relief through the UN and other agencies.Read the full article in ThePrint

Instead of Taliban talks, India must stand up for Afghan resistance despite Panjshir fall

Kabul fell to the Taliban on 15 August 2021. On 18 August, Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmed Shah Massoud, appealed to the West for help from Panjshir – “No matter what happens, my mujahideen fighters and I will defend Panjshir as the last bastion of Afghan freedom. Our morale is intact. We know from experience what awaits us. But we need is more weapons, more ammunition, and more supplies. America and its democratic allies do not just have to fight against terrorism in common with Afghans. We now have a long history made up of shared ideals and struggles. There is still much that you can do to aid the cause of freedom. You are our only remaining hope.”

The appeal has been met with silence from the officialdom of concerned countries. Counterterrorism in Afghanistan seems to be beggared. However, neither the Soviets nor the Taliban during its earlier stint has been able to control Panjshir. This time around, the challenge is greater but the resistance forces in Afghanistan rely on their grit, history and geography. Reports indicate that some elements of the Afghan Armed Forces including its Special Forces have joined the Panjshiris. The offensive on Panjshir is ongoing and indicate that the Taliban has captured major parts of Panjshir without much resistance. But with the Taliban capture of Panjshir, they will find it difficult to retain control as the Panjshiris could rely on guerilla tactics and terrain to raise the costs for the Taliban. The lack of resistance to the Taliban offensive is indicative of this possibility. The defenders have not surrendered but may have disappeared to fight another day.Read the full article in ThePrint

NDA, military can learn from US how to tweak standards for women without sacrificing fitness

Gender justice in the Armed Forces won yet another round when the Supreme Court passed an interim order to allow women to take the admission exam to the National Defence Academy, or NDA, that is scheduled for 5 September this year. Kush Kalra’s writ petition invoked the Articles pertinent to Fundamental Rights while the Additional Solicitor General, relied for defence, upon the principle of judicial non-interference in policy matters. In reality, the defence had no chance, for the ramparts of the male bastion had already suffered a major breach in early 2020 when the Supreme Court had passed orders for grant of permanent commission to women officers in the Army. The case took a decade to be decided. Justice was delayed but not denied.

While the previous battles for gender justice were confined to serving women officers, simultaneous thrusts are now aimed at the Armed Forces entry system. The Supreme Court is also hearing a petition regarding denial of admission to girls in the Sainik Schools. However, in November 2019, the Ministry of Defence had already announced its decision on opening Sainik schools for girls.Read the full article in ThePrint

India’s domestic politics makes China-Pakistan nexus more potent in Taliban era

The establishment of the ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’ on 19 August was announced through a tweet from the handle of its official spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid. The common wisdom in India is that terrorist threats to India would increase because Afghanistan will be used as a haven, as it happened during the earlier period of the Taliban rule in 1996-2001 with the hijacking of the Indian Airlines plane in December 1999 being a prime example.

The only problem is that this time around India’s vulnerability has exponentially increased, not so much by the increase in the scale of threat as by India’s domestic political trajectory, which may have set itself up. It would not take much for India’s adversaries to light the fire that exploits modern India’s historically rooted communal fault line.

The setup was symbolised through the announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India would observe 14 August as ‘Partition Horrors Remembrance Day’. Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran described the announcement as a move aimed “to reopen the wounds of yesteryear, to reignite ugly passions, where past horrors are regurgitated so they may be re-enacted with renewed passion”.Read the full article in ThePrint