Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
Russian energy industry makes new social media connection
By Aditya Pareek and Sapni GK
Russia’s energy industry currently brings in a major chunk of state revenue and is tied to common prosperity and employment in the Russian economy. Although a willingness eventually to phase out hydrocarbons now exists, the idea is to switch to exporting greener sources of energy such as hydrogen instead of just watching business decline.
The Price of the Question - Expectations from the India-Russia Summit
The Russian-Indian summit meeting, scheduled for December 6 in Delhi, is designed to breathe new life into the strategic partnership between Moscow and Delhi. The long list of issues that have accumulated for discussion after the forced pause in personal communication between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi caused by the coronavirus pandemic is not limited to defence purchases and the joint production of weapons.
The Geopolitics of the Arctic: What it Means for the EU, Russia and India
Cooperation on researching the melting permafrost in the Arctic region can bring together the EU, Russia and India
Prospects of Indian and Chinese collaboration with Russia on a Joint Space Station
Read the full Article on Valdai ClubIndia’s strategic rival China has already made advances in maintaining a sustained human presence in orbit and the learning curve for India appears steep. Only collaboration with Russia can give India a leg up and may perhaps be the only path for India to catch up to China in any meaningful way, writes Aditya Pareek, Research Analyst at the Bangalore-based Takshashila Institution. Read the full Article on Valdai Club
Japan aims to toughen up its cybersecurity
AUKUS a game of musical chairs in Indo-Pacific
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
The exclusion of France, India and Japan indicates that at the drop of a hat those in the fold may be oustedUS should take the right approach with IndiaPreviously, the role now to be assigned to AUKUS was envisaged to be undertaken in part by the Quad. However, several factors including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s broader focus than just the military dimension perhaps made it unsuitable for the purpose. Some commentators have already noticed the absence of other important countries in the US-led anti-China bulwark – India and Japan – in this new AUKUS grouping.Perhaps to prevent any fissures in its relationships with those countries and the Quad, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was quick to make presumably reassuring phone calls to the leaders of both India and Japan. The Australian high commissioner in India, Barry O’Farrell, also spoke of India being in the loop before the AUKUS announcement was made public. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato also conveyed a positive reaction to the announcement.
However, the resultant chaos around the exclusion of France, India and Japan is reminiscent of a game of geopolitical musical chairs – where at the drop of a hat rebalancing may occur and those in the fold may be ousted. This will inevitably bring chaos and uncertainty to the balance of power in the region.India for its part has developed closer and closer ties to the US in the domain of strategic and defense cooperation, including the signing of such agreements as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), COMCASA (the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA).These agreements are significant to Indian strategic and military capabilities by virtue of providing unprecedented access to key communications technology and data streams that can vastly improve the accuracy of India’s missile arsenal. However, they are not likely to give India autonomous capabilities to benefit from or use as New Delhi wishes. This is in direct contrast to Russia’s willingness to lease sensitive military hardware like its advanced nuclear-propelled submarines of the Akula class.Russia has also aided the development of India’s indigenous nuclear-submarine program, particularly its miniature onboard nuclear power plants. Washington’s broader strategic aim of dissuading India away from Russia has been characteristic of the “stick” approach, as evident from it mulling the imposition of sanctions over India’s S-400 purchase under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).Washington would find much more success in this endeavor were it instead to follow a “carrots” approach by offering India one of its Seawolf-class advanced fast attack nuclear submarines on the same 10-year lease terms as the Russian Akulas. This scenario has the potential to draw India much closer to the US and might serve as a watershed move that could weaken Russo-Indian defense ties further.
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
Exploring a new geopolitical partnership — the India-Russia-Japan triangle
Russia-China alliance could be shaken by fisheries
Read the full article on Asia TimesBeijing may be trying to coerce Moscow into letting it fish gratis in Russian watersSince at least 2014, Russia and China have seen their interests conflating against the United States and its allies. It is no surprise that both Russia and China (and their adversaries) see this “alliance” as flexible, pragmatic and based on mutual benefit, but not at the expense of either party’s distinct national interests – especially economic.With the recent joint military exercises, hysterical discourse around a supposed joint Russia-China front across domains is emerging, yet despite this, not all is well between the Dragon and the Bear.An undeclared quasi trade war on fisheries is ongoing between Russia and China. As early as October 2020, Russian media reported Chinese authorities were restricting fisheries imports from the Russian Far East.With the Covid-19 pandemic raging, the cited reason was “traces of the coronavirus on the seafood’s outer packaging.” This may have had some overlap with Chinese authorities’ desire to deflect the blame over the origins of the Covid-19 virus in Wuhan, China.Almost 60% of Russian seafood exports have been to the Chinese market alone, in previous years. The restrictions are still in force, and the response of the Chinese authorities has been less than engaging. The Russian Far East’s fisheries economy is set to bear losses in the range of 27% decline in revenue.For a measure of how drastic the situation has been, in March, Alexei Chekunkov, the Russian minister for the development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, went so far as to say that Far Eastern fishermen can safely delete the year 2021 from their calendar.The most affected regions in Russia are Sakhalin Oblast and Kamchatka Krai, which export much of their fish to China. In response to the crisis, the Russian fishing industry refuses to adopt a defeatist approach. Its efforts have been multifaceted – finding new alternatives to the Chinese market, seeking economic state intervention from the Russian government, and pushing for mitigating measures at relevant joint forums with China.Read the full article on Asia Times
Japan should think carefully about antagonizing Russia
Read the Full Article on Asia TimesThe recently published annual Defense of Japan white paper identifies the US as Japan’s “only ally” and the need to protect Taiwan if it is threatened by China.If read between the lines, it is a pragmatic expression of strategic clarity in the post-Shinzo Abe Japan’s geo-strategic posture. Japan acknowledges that it has no allies in its neighborhood and is willing to accept Taiwan as a quasi-protectorate.As evident from Russian Ambassador to Japan Mikhail Galuzin’s comments earlier this year, Russia does not see Japan as a threat, but is concerned about its security cooperation with the US. Despite this, Japan is on an ill-advised path of antagonizing Russia, paving the way for China and Russia to conflate their interests against Japan.On July 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council. After the meeting, it became apparent that an “unprecedented plan“ was in the works for engaging Japan in economic activities on the Kurils.The plan was broadly hinted at by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin during his visit to Iturup island on July 26 and involves a new regime of tax exemptions and setting up a free customs zone on the Kuril Islands.
The reactions to Mishustin’s visit by the Japanese government, diplomats and press can only be described as a tantrum meant to assuage domestic constituencies, with outrage trumping good sense.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato in no uncertain terms called the visit “extremely regrettable.” After Kato’s comments, Galuzin was summoned by the Japanese Foreign Ministry and issued a diplomatic protest over the visit, which Galuzin called “inappropriate” and refused to accept.Read the Full Article on Asia TimesThe views expressed are the author’s own and don’t reflect the recommendations of the Takshashila Institution
‘Gray zone’ intrigue may derail Russia-Japan cooperation
Read the Full Text of the Article on Asia Times Rightly or wrongly, Moscow may interpret recent events as ‘war by other means’ waged by US ally JapanRussia and its adversaries are equally obsessed with a full spectrum of “gray zone” activities, including high-tech military, industrial and corporate espionage. While Russia does not see Japan as an adversary, it feels uncomfortable with Japan’s close ties to the US.The contemporary Russia-Japan relationship is complicated, with worrying trends signaling possible derailment of their bilateral ties in some fields.While the direction of great-power relations is rightly gauged from policy moves and summits, the shadowy world of espionage and spies, while overtly aligned with policy and polity, covertly operates to secure national interests, making no concessions, even to allies.Over the past few weeks, a curious case of alleged espionage has been grabbing headlines in Japan. Kazuo Miyasaka, the 70-year-old former owner of a technical research firm, was reportedly apprehended by the police for allegedly passing on high-tech military secrets to a member of the Russian trade representative mission in Japan.Miyasaka is believed to have betrayed secrets related to the US Space Force’s unmanned X-37B spacecraft, among other advanced systems.Read the Full Text of the Article on Asia Times All views are personal and do not reflect the recommendations of the Takshashila Institution
Finnish intel review sheds light on relations with Russia
Finland is wary of a possible Russian clash with NATO in the Baltic region
The bear looms large
As Finland’s largest neighbor and a potent military power, Russia occupies an important place in its strategic assessments. With a direct reference to Russia, the review expresses concerns about the ability and likelihood of states achieving their goals through military means in the Baltic Sea region.The concern is in all probability a reference to Russia’s force posture and political rhetoric against the Baltic states – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A conflict between Russia and NATO in the region would have ramifications on Finland’s security and prosperity because of geographical proximity to terrain and waters where hostilities might break out.
Bilaterally, the contemporary relationship between Finland and Russia is that of strategic restraint and avoiding direct antagonism, with some major exceptions. One such exception is the Finnish Security Intelligence Service, or SUPO (which is in charge of counterintelligence for Finland’s homeland security), calling Russia the paramount threat in its December 2019 report.In 2018, there were raids by Finnish forces on Sakkiluoto, a southwestern Finnish island that according to reports has “nine piers and one helipad.” These facilities could plausibly be used for supporting gray-zone activities in and around Finland. Some believe such places could potentially serve as bases for shadowy agents of the Russian state who could use the facilities on these islands for asymmetric actions.
Read the full text at Asia Times
UK outlines global-focused defense strategy
Britain seeks to remain relevant in a world where it sees threats proliferating, while its finances are shrinking
The United Kingdom has outlined a vision for its defense and foreign-engagement priorities in its latest Integrated Review and Defense Command Paper.The paradigm of defense reviews in the UK goes back at least to the 1950s. The new document, published in March, has implications ranging from raising and appropriating defense spending to setting up new international bureaucratic structures and strategic nuclear signaling that nobody expected.It is no exaggeration to say that the document is Britain’s plan to remain relevant in a world where it sees threats proliferating, while its finances are shrinking.
Cummings couldn’t ‘cut’ it
Boris Johnson, the current British prime minister, promised an integrated review during his election campaign in 2019. However, at the time, Dominic Cummings, the technocratic chief adviser to the PM, was thought to be influencing the review. Until his exit from Downing Street in November last year, there was a lot of speculation on the review bringing a lot of cuts.Cummings was thought to prefer investment in high-tech solutions and wouldn’t shrink from cutting personnel and conventional security and war-fighting capabilities in the belief that they’d be obsolete in the very near future.
But in the end, in the final document, the cuts are not as severe as initially thought, though the focus on high-tech solutions and new war-fighting domains like cyber, artificial intelligence, space and information technology remain.In several places throughout the document, Russia has been identified as a major “active threat” to the UK and China as a “systemic competitor,” which broadly conforms to the general alignment and policies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).In response, the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, has said that the “political relationship between Moscow and London is nearly dead” – under the circumstances, not an unfair observation.Read the full article on Asia Times
Russia-Japan relations and why the Kurils matter
While there are signs of pragmatism in both Moscow and Tokyo, this last barrier to concluding WW2 remains
The Kuril Islands, or the Northern Territories as Japan likes to call them, are at the center of an uneasy relationship between Russia and Japan.The USSR occupied the islands between August and September 1945. Since the end of World War II, the disputed territory and related issues are the primary subject of engagement between the two countries.The contention over the ownership of the Kurils is also the main hurdle for the conclusion of World War II between the two nations. Over the decades, the diplomatic efforts by Japan have been unsuccessful in getting the islands back.In recent times there has been considerable cause to suggest that the Russian side has taken or has been compelled to take an icy approach to settling the Kuril Islands dispute because of public opinion.Laws in the new constitution adopted by Russia in July 2020 criminalize any alienation of Russian territories or advocacy for territorial concessions. These laws apply equally to every part of Russia, including those with some controversy around them, such as the Kuril Islands, Crimea and Kaliningrad.Read the full article on Asia Times
Northern Sea Route: hopes and challenges
The feasibility of a year-around Arctic transshipment route, a longtime dream of Russia, is still unclear
Media reports and commentaries are hailing the Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas) carrier Christophe de Margerie’s latest voyage along the Northern Sea Route as a watershed. The voyage has brought Moscow’s dream of year-around access to the NSR into the limelight again, and speculation is rife about whether the prospect is closer to reality than previously thought.However, a few less-reported aspects can shed more light on the NSR’s feasibility as a transshipment route.
Sister ship didn’t emerge unscathed
The Nikolay Yevgenov, another LNG carrier and sister ship of the Christophe de Margerie, departed a day later on the same route but suffered damage to its propulsion system. The ship took a detour through the Suez Canal and is in dry dock in France for repairs. The incident has diminished the sensational claims that the Arctic is now open for year-around safe voyages without heavy icebreakers clearing the way.Read the full article on Asia Times
The race to map the ocean deep
India is falling behind efforts to map the undersea environment of the Indo-Pacific regionMajor powers are investing time and money deploying UUVs in these waters because of the valuable oceanographic and hydrographic data they provide. Oceanography is the study of the physical and biological aspects of the oceans. Hydrography is the process by which the ocean bed is surveyed and navigation aids and charts are produced, providing ships the maritime equivalent of roadmaps and road signs.Oceanography and hydrography have clear civilian applications: scientific research into climate and marine ecology, surveying the ocean floors to ensure safer navigation of merchant vessels, and collecting information for oil and gas or other seabed mining activities.However, there are also equally clear naval applications: Hydrographic data ease the movement of naval surface ships. More important, they provide crucial information for submarines and for those tasked with hunting them. Over the coming years, the study of the oceans and the seabed is likely to become a source of power and influence in the Indo-Pacific region.Read the full article on Asia Times
India Needs a More Transparent Approach To Space Situational Awareness
The recent, barely avoided collision between India’s Cartosat 2F and Russia’s Kanopus V satellites highlights the need for transparent space situational awareness (SSA) in India.Information about the close call only became public after a tweet by Roscosmos – the Russian state space corporation – that went into specifics about the incident. The response of the Indian Space Research Organisation’s chairman K. Sivan makes it clear that India does not publicly discuss such events, and resolves them by coordinating with other space agencies.Read the full article in The Wire