Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
Focus on Innovation in Semiconductor Technology Will Boost Defence Manufacturing
By Arjun Gargeyas
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has prepared a list of around 209 military items on which import embargos would be placed after a specific amount of time. This is to provide opportunities for the local industry to manufacture these items. There is also the support of the defence sector in building long-term strategic partnerships with global equipment manufacturers for technology transfers to help Indian manufacturing infrastructure and supply chains. The increased focus on semiconductor manufacturing by the government also comes into the picture here. With the government curating policies to encourage defence manufacturing and start semiconductor manufacturing in the country, this is the time for a confluence of both in India’s national interest.
Why India, EU Should Prioritise Removing Existing Bottlenecks in Trade and Technology Pact
By Arjun Gargeyas
As technology remains a critical factor in advancing countries’ economies, there is also a quest for improving the accessibility of these critical technologies. The recently announced Europe-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC) Agreement is an attempt to have easier access of key technologies to both actors. The agreement seeks to improve the cross-border flow of technology goods and services between the two entities. An area of focus would be the existing and potential trade barriers that might impact the agreement. These barriers need to be addressed if the agreement can yield tangible results for the growth of the technology sector in India and Europe.
How India Can Take a Leaf Out of China’s Playbook on Battery Swapping to Form a Robust EV Ecosystem
By Rohan Pai
The first draft of the NITI Aayog’s ‘Battery Swapping Policy’ displays the Indian government’s commitment to building a conducive environment for the mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in India. The policy discerns some of the prevalent issues affecting consumers currently dabbling in the EV market and aims to tackle these through technologically-intensive solutions. However, there is a significant lack of clarity about the potential business models that may arise if the battery swapping policy were to be implemented. As a result, India must look outwards to understand how potential stakeholders can be engaged to form a robust EV ecosystem in India.
How China’s National Computing Network will be a Game Changer
By Arjun Gargeyas
Recently, the Cyberspace Administration of China unveiled an ambitious ‘National Computing Network’ initiative to address regional technological imbalances and develop a connected computing grid infrastructure across the country. Based on the concept of “Eastern Data and Western Computing”, the project proposes setting up clusters of computing resources in China’s less technologically developed western region, to form an integrated network with data centres in the more technology-oriented eastern cities.
In an Era of Cyber Wars, India needs a Fortified Computing Ecosystem
By Arjun Gargeyas
Advanced mechanisms have taken over the field of computing, with nation-States, along with private companies, embroiled in a high-stakes race to increase indigenous computing power for economic and strategic purposes. With India’s data generation at an all time high, there is a need to improve computational capabilities by using advanced computing technologies. Recent progress by the State has showcased the government’s intent. But a holistic strategy is in need to facilitate its further advancement.
For World to View India’s Potential as Semiconductor Powerhouse, We Need Targeted Trade Policies
By Arjun Gargeyas
India faces a tough task ahead: to show its commitment to building the semiconductor industry. Industrial policies with capital may attract investments and potential bids, but favourable trade policies and a conducive business environment can ensure the completion of the projects and yield results. In the long run, this approach can attract more international semiconductor firms. India can be closer to its goals by adopting the following policy recommendations. To begin with, India must change its approach to foreign trade policy and make it more accommodating to the technology sector. The government can then focus on developing a comprehensive trade policy suited or catered to the semiconductor industry itself.
West’s Russia Model Won’t Work with China: Why Tech Sanctions Alone Cannot Deter Dragon
By Arjun Gargeyas
The tech sanctions on Russia would have a devastating impact on its economy and affect the domestic market’s accessibility to basic technology goods. But if there is Chinese aggression against Taiwan in the near future, can these sanctions work? Will tech sanctions serve as a credible tool to deter or even punish the Chinese state from conducting their own military operations across the Taiwan straits? For a technologically advanced state such as China, will these targeted sanctions have any impact on its tech economy? China is much more integrated into the global economy and supply chain. And, that makes it much more difficult to have broad-based sanctions against China unlike those against Russia; it also makes sanctions far more costly for China because it has much more to lose.
What the Quad must do to build a resilient semiconductor chain
By Pranay Kotasthane, Glenn Downey and Stephen Ezell
Japan is hosting the Quad Leaders’ Summit meeting today. One agenda item will be to announce a concrete action plan under the Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative, launched by the leaders of the four countries in their last meeting in September 2021. The goal of the initiative is to strengthen the global semiconductor supply chain’s productive capacity and resilience.
Through this initiative, the Quad officially recognises that the semiconductor supply chain has geo-security consequences. The Semiconductor Industry Association – an industry body in the US – estimates that a typical semiconductor production process spans 4+ countries, 3+ trips around the globe, 25,000 miles and 12 days of travel. Given the hyper-global nature of this supply chain, no one country can become fully self-sufficient. For building a reliable, secure semiconductor supply chain, plurilateral partnerships are a necessity and not a choice.
A Road Map for Quad’s Emerging Technology Working Group
By Arjun Gargeyas
The second in-person summit of Quad is all set to be held in Japan on May 24. The leaders of the four countries are expected to announce future partnerships and projects across various sectors. As many as 12 working groups have been created thus far as part of the Quad grouping. Among them is the critical and emerging technology working group that was established in March 2021 to foster technological collaboration. Here are the three main areas of focus that Quad should focus on to create an immediate impact in the technology domain:
How India and China can Work Together on a Geoengineering Governance Framework
By Arjun Gargeyas
India and China have the possibility of driving forward the conversation on continuing credible research in the field of geoengineering. Both countries have been torchbearers for the rest of the developing world at climate conferences and both can work together to formulate a well-rounded governance framework regulating the research and technology in the field. While ethical considerations should be taken into account, the two countries can develop a holistic model (that also looks at potential negative consequences of geoengineering techniques) to have solar radiation management as a probable climate policy option. National agencies can be set up for funding solar geo-tech research and also keep tabs on the experiments being conducted.
Ownership of Digital Devices is Crucial for a Thriving Free Society
By Nitin Pai
A few weeks ago, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported that “Apple Inc. is working on a subscription service for the iPhone and other hardware products, a move that could make device ownership similar to paying a monthly app fee..”. Wall Street analysts and management consulting firms have been championing such a business model for some time, but my intuitive reaction upon reading the news was one of horror. And after further reflection and debate with my colleagues, I have no reason to change my mind: Hardware subscriptions are a bad idea for society. This business model must be challenged and subject to public and parliamentary debate. Public policy must exercise abundant caution and insist on regulatory safeguards.
The Cascading Effects of Chip Starvation to Russia
By Aditya Pareek and Arjun Gargeyas
The US and its allies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Netherlands enjoy an elevated status in the global high-tech sphere. Much of the world’s production capacity and intellectual property (IP) related to micro-electronic and semiconductors chips are concentrated in the territory of the US and its allies. This strategic high-tech dominance ensures that the US can inflict major costs on adversarial countries like Russia and China and their economies. It is clear that the recently imposed sanctions and export controls on Russia and the resultant chip starvation will have increasingly detrimental effects on the Russian economy. With no hope to import chips legally, Moscow may turn to gray imports and smuggling.
A Blueprint for India to Insulate Itself from Future Tech Sanctions
By Arjun Gargeyas
One interesting aspect of the conflict has been the use of tech sanctions by the West, its allies and even private technology companies to deny Russia access to critical technology components needed for the running its critical sectors, like space and telecommunications. This is the first time that specific technology sanctions have been levied against a single country. The impact of these sanctions can be absolutely devastating to the government and its strategic sectors, and even create inaccessibility to domestic consumers.
Despite US Restrictions, it Took China Only 15 Years to Lead the Quantum Computing Race
By Arjun Gargeyas
2008. The world-renowned quantum scientist Pan Jianwei returned to China and was allocated a lab at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) to kickstart China’s quantum programme. Fast forward a decade and China is the leading power in quantum communications and making consistent leaps in other areas of quantum technology. While major technology giants have thrown their hats into the ring with their own in-house quantum computer programmes, states and their governments around the world are not far behind each having launched its own quantum initiative. The bulk of the funding of government policies related to quantum technologies is set aside for the development of state-of-the-art quantum computers.
India, Japan, Australia Need Tech Alliance to Counter China and Huawei’s Monopoly
By Arjun Gargeyas
All three countries are part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad along with the US, in which technology cooperation has been a key factor in bringing together the States. When discussing the Indo-Pacific, the role of China remains key to these countries formulating their responses and multilateral policies. It is evident that China has now reached the stage of expanding its technological sphere of influence in the region. The private sector, coupled with continuous state support, has managed to gain a foothold in some key technology areas that have served Beijing’s diplomatic ambitions well.
As China Threat Looms Over Taiwan, This Is How India Can Keep Global Chip Industry Afloat
By Arjun Gargeyas
As the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues, questions have been raised about how this might affect China’s decision-making process on Taiwan. The island nation remains under threat from potential Chinese aggression and its lucrative semiconductor industry hangs in the balance. India, as a growing semiconductor power, must look at Taiwan closely on technology cooperation in the domain and should not shy away from building a semiconductor alliance with the country. It is imperative that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry be protected in case of external aggression by building redundancy and resiliency through partnerships with key states like India.
The Effect Of Tech Sanctions On The Russian Economy
By Arjun Gargeyas
During the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, the West (mainly the United States and its NATO allies) have been looking at deterrence mechanisms to curtail Russia's continuous military offensives. The current actions taken against Russia have mainly been in the form of targeting the Russian economy through sanctions and embargoes specifically targeting sectors that Russia relies on for export revenues. The recent announcement by President Joe Biden on banning Russian oil, gas, and energy imports to the US is just one of the decisions that are hitting the core of the economy. But, the US, has also specifically introduced high-tech sanctions mainly depriving Russia the access to critical technologies (like semiconductors, quantum, artificial intelligence, and big data) and their applications.
How Emerging Technologies Are Driving China’s Readiness For Modern Warfare
By Megha Pardhi and Arjun Gargeyas
In this year’s annual session of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang presented a finance report with an estimated 1.45 trillion yuan (US$230 billion) set aside for defence spending in 2022. Although that figure is an increase on last year, it is still less than the US military budget, which is expected to top US$770 billion. This translates into a significant gap in US and Chinese military power. As a result, China’s military modernisation and efforts to leverage technology in warfare have so far been directed to reduce this gap. Thus, Beijing is working to incorporate modern technology into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With the development of space and electronic warfare capabilities over the past two decades, China’s armed forces have started to embrace critical and emerging technologies.
Ukraine War Won’t Affect Global Semiconductor Supply, But Will Hit Russia Hard
By Arjun Gargeyas and Aditya Pareek
With the world still reeling from a global chip shortage, the recent crisis in Ukraine sends a bleak message to the already floundering industry. The semiconductor chip supply is yet to recover from the shock dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic. This, coupled with an impending war between two states that are contributors to the global supply chain, is detrimental to the industry’s recovery. The consumer electronics and automotive markets have been massively hit by this chip shortage. Apple, a major manufacturer of mobile phones and laptops, has pushed the release of their new line of MacBook and announced that the number of iPhone models being manufactured would be reduced due to the chip shortage. The automotive sector is still underperforming and major players have yet to resume operations at pre-pandemic levels. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia might have some implications on the global chip supply along with consequences for the Russian semiconductor industry itself.
With Eye on China, India Joins Race To Weaponise Quantum Tech in Future Military Conflicts
By Arjun Gargeyas
On February 23, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) made an announcement that went a bit under the radar but can have huge ramifications in the future for developing military technologies. The official statement given by the DRDO stated that a joint team of DRDO and IIT-Delhi successfully demonstrated a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) link for the very first time in the country between the cities of Prayagraj and Vindhyachal in the state of Uttar Pradesh. An interesting thing to note is that these cities are located at a distance of 100 kilometres from each other. This marks the beginning of the Indian military complex utilising an emerging technology like quantum to enhance domestic defensive capabilities.