Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
Moneycontrol | Growing US-China chip rivalry presents India with its geopolitical moment
By Satya S Sahu & Amit Kumar
In the US-China geopolitical tussle, 2022 was a watershed moment. In August, Washington unveiled the CHIPS and Science Act and followed it up with chip export controls in October, setting the tone for an intense rivalry in emerging and critical technologies with semiconductors at the forefront. The CHIPS and Science Act had but one objective: reshoring chip manufacturing back in the US from East Asia, where 85 percent of the current global fabrication capacity is concentrated. The export controls aimed to restrict China's access to advanced semiconductors and keep Chinese chip manufacturing capabilities behind the US by at least a decade. The controls also imposed restrictions on foreign companies operating in China, which relied on technology and capital sourced from the US. Read the full article here.
The Hindu | The signals from this ‘Made in China’ smartphone story
By Amit Kumar
Huawei, the Chinese smartphone giant, has created ripples within the strategic and business community with its newly unveiled Mate 60 Pro which houses the Kirin 9000 processor. The chipset reportedly used Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)’s second-generation 7nm fabrication technique, thereby demonstrating China’s capability to manufacture a 7nm chip. Read the full article here.
Nikkei Asia | India can get more out of nuclear power with private sector help
By Saurabh Todi
India needs a way to generate a lot more power to keep up with rapidly rising demand without adding to its already severe pollution woes. For India, nuclear energy is the obvious solution. On Aug. 31, a new unit of the Kakrapar Nuclear Power Plant -- the largest to be designed in India -- began full operations in Gujarat state. At their meeting in New Delhi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden discussed how the two countries could collaborate on developing next-generation small modular reactor technologies. A few weeks before, Modi talked to French President Emmanuel Macron about joint work on another emerging technology, advanced modular reactors. Read the full article here.
Mint | How to govern the AI industry must be accorded high priority
By Nitin Pai
The manner in which the world’s big artificial intelligence (AI) companies are scaring the world’s governments and asking for regulation reminds me of how incumbent telcos used to push ‘Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt’ (FUD) 20 years ago. We should suspect that the motives are similar: to use regulation to slam the gates shut for new entrants and use incumbency to acquire greater power over public policy. If OpenAI and Google are really worried that their products are dangerous and pose severe, unpredictable risks to public safety, they could stop developing them. It is reasonable, therefore, to suspect that their calls for regulation of so-called foundation models are partly motivated by the desire to lock-in their dominant market positions. Read the full article here.
The Hindu | Learning from the CHIPS Act of the U.S.
By Vishwanath Madhugiri & Pranay Kotasthane
The United States’ Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS Act) completes one year as a law today (August 9). The Act authorises $52.7 billion over five years to boost American competitiveness, innovation and national security in semiconductors. While the jury is still out on the long-term effectiveness of the Act, what is important from an Indian perspective is to observe and learn from its implementation. As industrial policy has become a default policy of choice for nation-states, the Act provides a clear window into the capabilities and structures needed to execute such policies. Read the full article here.
Hindustan Times | In the chip war, US has the edge over China
By Amit Kumar and Pranay Kotasthane
As a countermeasure to a series of US-led tech restrictions, China’s ministry of commerce and general administration of customs recently announced export controls on industrial products and materials containing two critical elements — Gallium (Ga) and Germanium (Ge). The export of these elements will now be subject to governmental clearance. The ministry justified the restriction on national security grounds, owing to the elements’ dual-use nature. Read the full article here.
Centre on Asia and Globalisation | Confronting Trade-offs for India’s Electronics Manufacturing Success
By Pranay Kotasthane
The improving performance of India’s electronics manufacturing sector has been a topic of intense policy interest in the country. Electronics exports saw a spectacular growth of almost 50 percent in FY23, reaching $25.3 billion. Electronics is now India’s sixth largest merchandise export, overtaking readymade garments. Encouraged by these successes, the Indian government is confident of achieving its target of $140 billion in electronics exports and 1 million new jobs by FY26. This sector’s success is now portrayed as a vindication of the Indian government’s flagship industrial policy instrument: the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. Policy debates surrounding the PLI have primarily focused on its design, effectiveness, and potential pitfalls. But the elephant in the room is the crucial role of Chinese companies in India’s electronics manufacturing story. Read the full article here.
Moneycontrol | India mustn’t miss this chance to supercharge its electronic goods industry
By Satya S Sahu
India is caught up in a quarrel over tariffs on information and communication technology (ICT) goods. The EU filed a WTO dispute that India has applied tariffs up to 20 percent on certain ICT goods, such as mobile phones and accessories, which is against the Information Technology Agreement-1 (ITA-1), to which India is a signatory. Signatories to ITA-1 are obliged to levy a maximum tariff of zero percent on a set of pre-agreed ICT goods. India claims that the goods on which it levies a tariff are not covered under ITA-1. Besides the EU, Japan and Taiwan also filed similar cases against India. The WTO has ruled against India in all three disputes. Read the full article here.
Mint | Our PLI schemes are in need of a coherent trade policy
By Satya S Sahu
The recent spat between former Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan and electronics and information technology minister Ashwini Vaishnaw over the former’s criticism of the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for semiconductors and other manufacturing sectors is part of an ongoing debate on India’s manufacturing policies. Rajan argues that PLI schemes alone do not add value to electronics and semiconductors, even though value addition is a key objective of the ministry’s 2022 vision document. It aims to increase India’s electronics exports to $300 billion by 2025-26 from $25.3 billion in 2022-23, and deepen integration with global value chains (GVCs). Read the full article here.
Hindustan Times | A road map to propel US-India chips push
By Pranay Kotasthane & Douglas Fuller
Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi will travel to Washington DC on June 21 for his first official State visit. A prominent item on the agenda is technology cooperation. In May last year, the two governments elevated their strategic partnership by announcing an initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET). During this visit, the two sides will aim to announce concrete steps under this initiative. This article proposes a way forward on one of the main pillars of iCET: Resilient semiconductor supply chains. iCET’s readout explicitly mentioned enhanced cooperation in three areas: Supporting the development of a semiconductor design, manufacturing, and fabrication ecosystem in India; promoting the development of a skilled semiconductor workforce; and encouraging the development of fabs for mature technology nodes and packaging in India. Using iCET’s vision, we propose cooperation options in the three archetypal stages of the semiconductor supply chain: Design, manufacturing, and Outsourced Assembly and Test (OSAT).
Nikkei Asia | The Quad should have its own biomanufacturing hub in India
By Saurabh Todi and Shambhavi Naik
Biomanufacturing, which uses microorganisms and cell cultures to produce molecules and materials on a large scale, is rapidly rising in importance for Indo-Pacific nations. The world's response to COVID-19 depended on the rapid production of new vaccines through biomanufacturing. Countries with preexisting manufacturing capabilities became the gatekeepers of vaccine supply. Scaling up biomanufacturing in India will be fraught with challenges, however, but these can be overcome with external support. The Quad group in particular is ideally placed to collaborate and boost India's efforts.
Read more here
Interstellar | US-China Chip War: What Might The Future Hold?
By Amit Kumar
The US-China geopolitical fault lines in high technology have become sharper than ever, and nowhere has it been more significant than semiconductors. Semiconductors are critical to advanced computing and artificial intelligence (AI) that will form the core of the next-generation industrial revolution. They also have significant implications for advanced and precision weaponry and consumer tech.
Read more here.
StratNews Global | U.S. Seeks To Deny China Access To Key Semiconductor Technologies
By Amit Kumar
The U.S.-China geopolitical fault lines in high technology have become sharper than ever and nowhere has it been more significant than in the domain of semiconductors. Semiconductors are critical to advanced computing and artificial intelligence (AI) that will form the core of the next-generation industrial revolution. They also have significant implications for advanced and precision weaponry in addition to consumer tech. The deepening of U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry has rendered the widely distributed global semiconductor value chain susceptible to disruption and choking. Consequently, their value as a critical tech has led to an increased securitisation of the domain.
Read more here.
News18 | Globalising India's DPI for a Common Digital Future
By Saurabh Todi and Bharath Reddy
As the current chair of the G20, India has an opportunity to showcase and advocate for the global adoption of its world-class digital public infrastructure (DPI), which could lead to global standards, best practices, and innovation trickling back to India
Read the full article here
ASPI Strategist | The Quad should commit to a biomanufacturing hub in India
By Saurabh Todi and Shambhavi Naik
A biological revolution is underway in global manufacturing. Products produced from genetic engineering and biomanufacturing techniques are replacing many chemical, industrial and farm-based products. These include biological therapies, alternative proteins, plant-based oils, bioplastics and super strong threads, and more products such as bioconcrete are in development. The upcoming leaders’ summit in Sydney is an opportunity for the members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to take leadership in manufacturing this critical technology.
Read more here
Mint | We have a historic opportunity to shape tomorrow’s world order
By Nitin Pai
It is easy to feel disoriented amid the increasingly intense debates over artificial intelligence, semiconductors, energy transition, autonomous vehicles, platforms, genomics, quantum computing and other technological marvels of our times. Over the past six months, technology policy has overtaken China and the Indo-Pacific as the primary topics that foreign visitors to Takshashila want to discuss. Over a decade ago, I escaped from the tech policy world into what I thought was the more exciting world of geopolitics and international relations. Today, I find it hard to distinguish the boundaries between those disciplines.
Read more here.
Missing in India’s AI growth plan is private investment
By Shailesh Chitnis
On artificial intelligence (AI), the government appears to be moving at a frenetic pace. This month, plans were announced to make large public datasets available to Indian businesses. The government also wants to embed AI in different parts of India Stack, and fund three centres of excellence for AI, housed within leading academic institutions.
Let’s insist on full disclosure and consent for AI and algorithm use
By Nitin Pai
One of the many recent mysteries is why hundreds of extremely intelligent and rich people think that a moratorium on further development of artificial intelligence is feasible, or that a six month hiatus is sufficient for us to figure out what to do about it. Technology development is a ‘prisoner’s dilemma’ with millions of competing participants making it impossible to get everyone to cooperate. Top-tier competitors are more likely to cheat on the moratorium in the expectation that others will do so, which will render such as moratorium useless, and worse, drive the industry underground.
We mustn’t let young minds live in constant fear of an apocalypse
By Nitin Pai
Prominent ‘tech bros’ are now predicting a catastrophic financial crisis in the US leading to hyperinflation and apocalypse. It’s funny how people who took zero interest rates for granted, made fantastic predictions about techno-utopias but failed to plan for something as predictable as changes in interest rates are now forecasting the end of the world as we know it. They are not alone.
For India’s AI ambitions, the time to act is now
By Shailesh Chitnis
On May 17, 2017, AlphaGo, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system built by Google’s DeepMind, defeated Ke Jie, China’s leading player in the board game, Go. In his book AI Superpowers, Kai-Fu Lee cites this as the seminal moment in China’s AI awakening. Considered the hardest game to master, Go’s dominance by a computer roused the government into action. Within a few months, Beijing announced plans to dominate AI by 2030.