Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
The Implications of Mutual Assured Vulnerability for the Indo-Pacific Region
China’s nuclear modernisation might establish stability in the US-China nuclear dyad. However, it would have a cascading effect on the nuclear and conventional competition in the Indo-Pacific region
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undertaken the qualitative and quantitative modernisation of its nuclear arsenal. In the past two years, China has constructed around 250-300 missile silos, tested a new hypersonic missile system, fielded at least two brigades of its road-mobile DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), handed over two Jin-class submarines to the People’s Liberation Army — one of which (Changzheng 18) was commissioned to enter service in April 2021, and continued deploying more road-mobile DF-31 AG launchers and dual-use DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs).
Iran-Pakistan Rivalry In Afghanistan Works for India
The Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan held in New Delhi on November 10 marks India’s re-entry into the contested landscape of Af-Pak geopolitics. However, due to the regional states’ differing focus on the terrorism threat, refugee crisis, regional stability etc, Indian concerns about the repercussions of ISI activities in Afghanistan will likely remain a low priority for most regional powers, except Iran. It’s Iran that has both the interest and resources to resist Pakistan’s domination in Afghanistan.
Delhi declaration marks India’s return to Afghanistan
On November 10, India hosted the third Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan in New Delhi. Unlike the past two iterations sponsored by Iran, the Delhi Meet was conspicuous by the absence of Afghan officials from the dialogue. The new Afghan regime dominated by the Haqqani Network was not invited to the meeting, whereas its prime backer, Pakistan, was invited but refused to attend, calling India a “spoiler” to the peace in Afghanistan. Beijing, a close ally of Islamabad, also opted out of the meeting, citing “scheduling difficulties”.Yet, the meeting in New Delhi led by NSA Ajit Doval remains vital to the geopolitical developments in the region. The meeting was attended by top security officials of Russia, Iran and the five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.What came out of the Delhi Declaration? The deterioration of regional security due to the emerging threats of terrorism, radicalisation and drug trafficking emanating from political stability in Afghanistan remained the focus of the meeting. In the Delhi Declaration, the common concerns of the participants came out prominently with their reiteration of “strong support” for stability in Afghanistan and a call for “non-interference in its internal affairs”. They also emphasised that Afghanistan’s territory should not be used for “sheltering, training, planning or financing any terrorist acts” against the neighbours and reaffirmed their “firm commitment to combat terrorism in all its form and manifestations”.While Pakistan was not named, the Iranian concerns with the ISI domination in Afghanistan came into the forefront with the participants’ stress upon forming an “open and truly inclusive government” that includes all the “major ethno-political forces in the country”. It is important to note that ever since the Taliban victory in August 2015, Iran has consistently raised the issue of the exclusion of Persian/Dari speaking minority groups from the government. Mainly, the role of the ISI in imposing a Haqqani Network dominated government in Afghanistan had elicited strong reactions in Tehran. Though the Taliban had subsequently included some members from northern Afghanistan, it is clear that Iran would continue to focus on securing its allies’ interests in Afghanistan.The importance given to “providing humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan” in the Delhi Declaration also high- lighted India’s concerns. From the Indian point of view, the participant countries’ support for humanitarian assistance to be provided in an “unimpeded, direct and assured manner to Afghanistan” was a gesture of support for New Delhi’s efforts to send aid to Afghanistan. It also underlines the regional opposition to Islamabad’s obstructive tactics in refusing to allow transit permission to the trucks waiting on the Indian side of the border. Similarly, the Declaration’s mention of the “central role” of the UN in Afghanistan was tacit approval of the UNSC resolution 2593, which prohibits safe havens to terror outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, passed during India’s presidency of the Security Council in August this year.Has India got its focus back on Afghanistan? Ever since the Taliban victory, New Delhi has struggled to remain relevant to the developments in Kabul. On the other hand, having secured its strategic depth on its western border, Pakistan’s determination to not let India play any major role in Afghanistan is a geographic reality that remains difficult to overcome.In this regard, making a common cause with other regional powers is the only feasible solution for New Delhi. By hosting a regional security meeting on Afghanistan, India has belatedly underscored its security concerns with the regional developments. While the prospects of the Taliban-Pakistan fallout remain high until the ISI’s domination generates domestic backlash in Afghanistan, a concerted effort with like-minded regional powers is the only option for regional stability.This article was published in Newstrail newspaper on November 12, 2021.
China’s hypersonic missile test got US, India racing. It exposes BMD vulnerability
China has carried out a test of a new space capability with a hypersonic missile, as reported first by The Financial Times. The test was supposedly carried out secretly in August 2021. The report relied on experts of the US intelligence community and could be a deliberate leak. It managed to touch the most sensitive cord of any nation’s strategic community—potential vulnerability.
A barrage of commentaries soon littered the information landscape. It mattered little that the development did not create a vulnerability in the Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) of the US or any other nation that is deploying it. The vulnerability already existed, and all the efforts of creating a BMD system have been chasing their tail since 2001—when the US had unleashed the BMD arms race as it withdrew from the 1972 Ballistic Missile Defense Treaty with the Soviet Union. The Financial Times report indicated that the US has now been disadvantaged by China’s technological progress. It sits easily with the larger narrative of Beijing’s growing technological and military capability.
Why China’s Quest to Dominate Global Tech Standards Looks Far-fetched
By Arjun Gargeyas
The rise of China’s technological growth has created ripples in the world technology ecosystem.
The global tech markets, which were generally dominated by the West have come under immense geopolitical and geoeconomic pressure due to China’s rapid growth in developing emerging technologies. The Chinese government has created a vision for the State to dominate the global tech supply chains and eventually concentrate geopolitical power. At the heart of this vision lies technical standards and the role they play in determining the balance of power between technologically adept states.
Ideology in Xi’s China: The role of nationalism
Through the decades of reform and opening up, the impulse of nationalism dominated popular ideological discourse. It, along with economic performance, served as the key pillars shoring-up the Party’s legitimacy. Two events were decisive in shaping this direction. The first was the Tiananmen Square crisis of 1989, which threatened the Party’s ruling legitimacy. The second was Deng Xiaoping’s 1992 Southern Tour, which signalled an end to internal jostling over the direction of economic policy. Growth at any cost would now become the primary policy driver for the Party. This subsequent patriotic education campaign, of course, had a key role to play in this process too, along with key domestic and international developments.Read the full article in Hindustan Times.
The role of ideology in Xi Jinping’s China
There is an increasing sense around the world that under Xi Jinping, the Communist Party of China has doubled down on ideology. This is seen as a distinct turn away from the pragmatism that Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up had engendered. The argument goes that emerging from the failure of the Great Leap Forward and the subsequent chaos of the Cultural Revolution, Deng reoriented the Party’s mission away from class warfare and revolution towards economic prosperity. In this quest, he restructured the Party’s organisational system and redefined its relationship with the state, capital and society, loosening controls. Policies through the decades of reform and opening up, for many, had implied that China had begun transitioning to a post-ideological society, where ideological discourse provided a rhetorical connection to communism and socialism but lacked substance. This is the trend that has seemingly regressed or been rectified, depending on one’s viewpoint, with the emergence of Xi Jinping Thought as China’s guiding ideology after the 19th Party Congress in 2017.There are, of course, fundamental changes that are taking place in China under Xi Jinping. For instance, there is indeed greater discussion about inheriting red genes, the vitality of socialism and the superiority of the socialist system, and the goal of common prosperity. These are certainly also impacting policies with regard to the Party organisation, the role of private capital, approach to economic reform and social security policies. However, the argument that there is a return of ideology is epistemologically on shaky ground. Such an assessment, in fact, is a fundamental misinterpretation of the political evolution of the Chinese Party-state system. In part, this misinterpretation has been the product of the manner in which observers have approached the concept of ideology, and in part, it is a product of misreading the essential impulses that shape the Party’s ideology.Read the full article here in Hindustan Times
A ‘bubbles of trust’ approach
An asymmetric globalisation favouring China allowed Beijing to attain power. It is now using that power to undermine liberal democratic values around the world. The Chinese market was never open to foreign companies in the way foreign markets are to Chinese firms. This is particularly true in the information and communications technology sector: foreign media, technology and software companies have always been walled out of Chinese markets. Meanwhile, Chinese firms rode on the globalisation bandwagon to secure significant market shares in open economies. President Xi Jinping now formally requires Chinese firms to follow the political agenda of the Chinese Communist Party. But even before this, it was not possible to tell where private ownership ended and the party-state began.We are currently witnessing a global retreat from the free movement of goods, services, capital, people and ideas. But this should not be understood as a reaction to globalisation itself, but of its skewed pattern over the past four decades.Read the full article here.
चिनी हालचालींचा अंदाज
भारताच्या सीमेवर चीन जे करीत आहे, त्यामागे अनेक वर्षांचा विचार आणि पुढील अनेक दशकांचा वेध आहे. हा विचार केवळ भारतीय उपखंडाचा नाही, तर साऱ्या हिंद-प्रशांत क्षेत्राचा आहे. भारतालाही भविष्याचा वेध घेत पावले टाकायला हवीत...
भारतीय लष्कर आणि चीनची 'पीपल्स लिबरेशन आर्मी' यांच्यात अलीकडे प्रत्यक्ष ताबारेषेच्या चिनी बाजूकडील मोल्डो येथे कोअर कमांडर पातळीवर चर्चेची तेरावी फेरी पार पडली. पूर्व लडाखमधील हॉटस्प्रिंग्स येथील १५ क्रमांकाच्या गस्ती ठाण्यावरून दोन्ही बाजूंच्या फौजा मागे घेण्याचे उद्दिष्ट त्यात होते; परंतु या फेरीत कोंडी फुटली नाही. चीनच्या पश्चिम थिएटर कमांडच्या प्रवक्त्यांनी भारताकडून अवास्तव मागण्या होत असल्याचा आरोप केला. गेले १७ महिने दोन्ही लष्करे पूर्व लडाख सीमेवर अनेक ठिकाणी समोरासमोर उभी ठाकली आहेत. सप्टेंबर २०२०मध्ये प्रत्यक्ष ताबा रेषेवर ४५ वर्षांत प्रथमच गोळीबार झाला. पँगॉग सरोवराच्या दक्षिण तीराजवळ भारतीय लष्कराने भविष्यातील हालचालींचा वेध घेत काही मोहिमा केल्या. या पूर्वी अरुणाचल प्रदेशातील तुलुंग ला क्षेत्रात भारतीय गस्ती मोहिमेवर 'पीएलए'ने हल्ला चढविला; त्यावेळी भारत-चीन सीमेवरील गोळीबाराची घटना ऑक्टोबर १९७५मध्ये झाली होती. गेले १७ महिने चीन ज्या प्रकारे ठाण मांडून बसला आहे, त्याची व्याप्ती पाहिल्यास 'पीएलए'ने अशा झुंजीसाठी बरीच आधी तयारी केली असावी. सन २०२०च्या प्रारंभी तिबेटमध्ये सुरू झालेल्या मोठ्या लष्करी युद्धसरावातील सैनिक व प्रशिक्षणार्थी (कॉनस्क्रिप्ट्स-सैन्यातील अनिवार्य सेवेचे तरुण) यांच्या फौजा पूर्व लडाख सीमेकडे वळवण्यात आल्या. त्यातून हा झुंजीचा प्रसंग उभा राहिला. सीमेवर चीनने ज्या कारवाया सुरू केल्या, त्यांचा आवाका बघता भारतीय मुलकी व लष्करी गुप्तवार्ता यंत्रणांना धक्का बसला. या पूर्वी गेल्या दीड दशकात किमान तीन वेळा चीनने सीमा तंट्यावरून काही प्रदेश काबीज करण्याचा प्रयत्न केला होता. या घटना पुढील पेचप्रसंगाच्या निदर्शक होत्या. त्यातून भारतीय संरक्षण दले आणि सामरिक समुदायाला चीनचा पवित्रा बदलत असल्याची चाहूल लागायला हवी होती.
China’s Border law: The Why, What & What Next
The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) passed a new law on October 23 for strengthening China’s border security management. The Land Border Law of PRC aims to improve coordination between the national, regional and local level authorities to maintain China’s national security and territorial integrity. It standardises how China patrols its massive 22,100 km land boundaries and borders with 14 countries. The law was first proposed in March 2021, approved at the closing meeting of the legislative session this Saturday and will go into effect by January 1, 2022.What is the law?With 62 clauses in seven chapters, the law underlines that “The PRC’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are sacred and inviolable and the state shall take measures to safeguard them.” It creates a legal framework for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the People’s Armed Police (PAP) and the border defence units to counter any invasion, encroachment, infiltration or provocation across its land borders.The article was originally published in the Times of India
US-China Missile Rivalry opens up New Opportunities for India
China has been showing off its hypersonic missiles for the past several years. That Chinese scientists have been publishing papers reporting their advances in such a sensitive field indicates that Beijing wants the world to know that it is developing these weapons. The US government is quite obviously aware of this. So one would not expect Washington to be greatly surprised to find that China has tested hypersonic missiles a couple of times this year.Yet, reports in the Financial Times and elsewhere have had US officials expressing shock at this development and comparing China’s hypersonic missile tests to a “Sputnik moment", a Cold War reference recalling how the Soviet Union surprised the world in 1957 by being the first to put an artificial satellite in orbit. We do not have the full details and Beijing’s missile is bound to be innovative in some ways, but the official reaction in Washington seems to be exaggerated.Read the full article on The Mint
Why India, Taiwan should strengthen ties
By Arjun Gargeyas
As the world gets back on its feet from the Covid-19 pandemic while reeling under a global chip shortage, Taiwan has become an important geopolitical focal point. Taiwan’s stranglehold over the semiconductor industry and its overall technology expertise have demonstrated its strategic importance in the global world order.Taipei’s New Southbound Policy was envisaged by President Tsai Ing-wen to enhance cooperation between Taiwan and other major states in Southeast and South Asia. India, on the other hand, formulated the Act East Policy as a major diplomatic initiative to promote economic strategic relations with other states in the Indo-Pacific region.With both India and Taiwan looking to deepen diplomatic ties in their respective regions, now would be the opportune time for the two states to forge an alliance built on common interests.
Prospects of Indian and Chinese collaboration with Russia on a Joint Space Station
Read the full Article on Valdai ClubIndia’s strategic rival China has already made advances in maintaining a sustained human presence in orbit and the learning curve for India appears steep. Only collaboration with Russia can give India a leg up and may perhaps be the only path for India to catch up to China in any meaningful way, writes Aditya Pareek, Research Analyst at the Bangalore-based Takshashila Institution. Read the full Article on Valdai Club
Japan aims to toughen up its cybersecurity
World is Entering A New Moon Age
Read the full article on Times of India It will require India to do some tough space diplomacy between divergent spacefaring campsOn September 7, 2019, India’s Chandrayaan-2 Moon Lander crashed in a cloud of lunar dust no human would witness. It had experienced a “hard landing” on a desolate patch of the lunar surface. Isro chairman K Sivan called the mission “98% successful”, which implicitly acknowledged the sheer difficulty of such undertakings but also reflected the combination of optimism and determination that go into India’s spacefaring aspirations. Read the full article on Times of India
How China manufactured nationalism in triumph over Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s return
"If faith has colour, it must be China Red," said 49-year-old Meng Wenzhou, after returning to China after almost three years. Triumph in her speech and nationalism in the air around her couldn't have been more evident.Meng Wanzhou, Chief Finance Officer (CFO) of Huawei, returned to China on 25 September after she was arrested in December 2018 in Canada following an extradition request from the US, on charges of with fraud and misleading HSBC over Huawei’s business dealings in Iran in violations of American sanctions on Iran. She pleaded “not guilty” to charges but accepted that some information in her presentation to HSBC was false. She returned after the United States (US) agreed to drop the extradition request. The nationalist rhetoric of China's triumph in securing Meng's release was overflowing everywhere from state media to social media. Social media was abuzz with news of Meng coming back to the "motherland" to the extent that on 25th Sept, 26 of the top 30 hot searches on Weibo were related to Meng.While netizens admired China’s diplomatic efforts for securing her release, others were swooning over the very public display of affection by Meng's husband, Liu Xiaozong. The nationalistic fervour among netizens is perhaps best exemplified by a cartoon by Chinese cartoonist Wu Heqiling. It depicts a woman dressed in yellow being rescued from a huge shark-like creature, with its skin coloured as the US flag, by officers in a red helicopter. The cartoon went viral in China and even the Embassy of People's Republic of China in Sri Lanka shared it on Twitter. State media in China left no stone unturned in covering Meng's return. The hours-ling live broadcast of her landing at Bao’an airport in Shenzhen also featured a live flight tracker. Over 400 million people reportedly watched the live broadcast.The celebration is part of State media’s carefully manufactured nationalistic narrative.Read full article published by Firstpost.
AUKUS a game of musical chairs in Indo-Pacific
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
The exclusion of France, India and Japan indicates that at the drop of a hat those in the fold may be oustedUS should take the right approach with IndiaPreviously, the role now to be assigned to AUKUS was envisaged to be undertaken in part by the Quad. However, several factors including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s broader focus than just the military dimension perhaps made it unsuitable for the purpose. Some commentators have already noticed the absence of other important countries in the US-led anti-China bulwark – India and Japan – in this new AUKUS grouping.Perhaps to prevent any fissures in its relationships with those countries and the Quad, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was quick to make presumably reassuring phone calls to the leaders of both India and Japan. The Australian high commissioner in India, Barry O’Farrell, also spoke of India being in the loop before the AUKUS announcement was made public. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato also conveyed a positive reaction to the announcement.
However, the resultant chaos around the exclusion of France, India and Japan is reminiscent of a game of geopolitical musical chairs – where at the drop of a hat rebalancing may occur and those in the fold may be ousted. This will inevitably bring chaos and uncertainty to the balance of power in the region.India for its part has developed closer and closer ties to the US in the domain of strategic and defense cooperation, including the signing of such agreements as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), COMCASA (the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA).These agreements are significant to Indian strategic and military capabilities by virtue of providing unprecedented access to key communications technology and data streams that can vastly improve the accuracy of India’s missile arsenal. However, they are not likely to give India autonomous capabilities to benefit from or use as New Delhi wishes. This is in direct contrast to Russia’s willingness to lease sensitive military hardware like its advanced nuclear-propelled submarines of the Akula class.Russia has also aided the development of India’s indigenous nuclear-submarine program, particularly its miniature onboard nuclear power plants. Washington’s broader strategic aim of dissuading India away from Russia has been characteristic of the “stick” approach, as evident from it mulling the imposition of sanctions over India’s S-400 purchase under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).Washington would find much more success in this endeavor were it instead to follow a “carrots” approach by offering India one of its Seawolf-class advanced fast attack nuclear submarines on the same 10-year lease terms as the Russian Akulas. This scenario has the potential to draw India much closer to the US and might serve as a watershed move that could weaken Russo-Indian defense ties further.
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
China’s ‘Standards 2035’ Project Could Result in a Technological Cold War
By Arjun Gargeyas
The eventual decline of the West’s dominance in the standards domain has offered an opportunity for China to play a bigger role in finalizing and setting technology standards. The Chinese state has gradually increased its technical capabilities and has worked toward strengthening the technology sector in the country during the last two decades. The domestic private technology sector of China, supported by the state, has gained immense heft on the international stage. Now, it looks to play an active role in advocating for global technical standards and a worldwide governance mechanism for governing emerging technologies. In this way, China hopes to boost domestic economic growth and project geopolitical influence.
How India could get involved in the AUKUS alliance
By Arjun Gargeyas
The newly announced alliance appears to be intended a base for all three states to indulge in defense and technology cooperation and to collaborate on governing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and cyberspace.While India’s involvement in the Quad is needed, there are also pragmatic reasons for India to work with the AUKUS states to achieve their objectives. Modi’s first face-to-face meeting with Biden could help make India’s case for getting involved with AUKUS.Read the full article on Asia Times
2021 isn’t Pakistan’s 1971
US secretary of state Antony Blinken’s statement on Pakistan’s “double dealing” in Afghanistan and the consequent need to “review” ties is far from the only trouble Islamabad faces. Never mind rhetoric on the Taliban victory being Islamabad’s own “1971 moment”. Or the recent visit of the ISI chief to Kabul. Kabul’s new regime will likely create a set of political, security and diplomatic challenges for Islamabad.While Pakistan would rely on the Haqqani Network to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani is just one of the players on the chessboard of Afghan politics. It is likely that a nationalist section led by Mullah Baradar, who was in line to become the head of Taliban after Mullah Omar, would resist ISI domination in the future as it had during the insurgency phase.Read the full article in The Times of India