China’s ‘Standards 2035’ Project Could Result in a Technological Cold War

The eventual decline of the West’s dominance in the standards domain has offered an opportunity for China to play a bigger role in finalizing and setting technology standards. The Chinese state has gradually increased its technical capabilities and has worked toward strengthening the technology sector in the country during the last two decades. The domestic private technology sector of China, supported by the state, has gained immense heft on the international stage. Now, it looks to play an active role in advocating for global technical standards and a worldwide governance mechanism for governing emerging technologies. In this way, China hopes to boost domestic economic growth and project geopolitical influence.

How India could get involved in the AUKUS alliance

The newly announced alliance appears to be intended a base for all three states to indulge in defense and technology cooperation and to collaborate on governing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and cyberspace.While India’s involvement in the Quad is needed, there are also pragmatic reasons for India to work with the AUKUS states to achieve their objectives. Modi’s first face-to-face meeting with Biden could help make India’s case for getting involved with AUKUS.Read the full article on Asia Times

Understanding China’s Draft Algorithm Regulations

Data and algorithms are the fundamental blocks of cyberspace, but while data practices are increasingly being regulated around the world algorithm regulation is relatively untouched. The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), for example, remains the groundbreaking model for data protection regulations in most parts of the world. However, there is a void in the regulation of algorithms.In August, China issued the Draft Internet Information Service Algorithmic Recommendation Management Provisions, with an interest in standard setting in this space. Read the full op-ed on The Diplomat. Views are personal and do not represent Takshashila's policy recommendations.

Times of India | 2021 isn’t Pakistan’s 1971

US secretary of state Antony Blinken’s statement on Pakistan’s “double dealing” in Afghanistan and the consequent need to “review” ties is far from the only trouble Islamabad faces. Never mind rhetoric on the Taliban victory being Islamabad’s own “1971 moment”. Or the recent visit of the ISI chief to Kabul. Kabul’s new regime will likely create a set of political, security and diplomatic challenges for Islamabad.While Pakistan would rely on the Haqqani Network to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani is just one of the players on the chessboard of Afghan politics. It is likely that a nationalist section led by Mullah Baradar, who was in line to become the head of Taliban after Mullah Omar, would resist ISI domination in the future as it had during the insurgency phase.Read the full article in The Times of India.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are in a strategic embrace that cannot have a happy ending

A theocratic oligarchy consisting mostly of United Nations-designated terrorists is going to hold the reins of power in Afghanistan. To oversee the formation of an ‘interim’ government, Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed had flown to Kabul. The interim government had even been announced but the sudden cancellation of the swearing-in shows there are tussles in the upper echelons of the Taliban, which Pakistan must handle with care. Lack of experience in governance is another issue that Pakistan is trying to solve, with reports indicating that guidance will be provided by ISI-nominated Pakistani bureaucrats, technocrats, professional military, and police personnel. For sure, the Punjabi Musalman from Pakistan will, sooner rather than later, rub the wrong side of the Afghan Pathan.Pakistan and Afghanistan are now politically and strategically inseparable. They are both backed by China, which has announced a $31 million financial assistance that can, at best, provide limited relief, unless followed by continuous and larger benevolence. The international institutions that are mostly under the United States’ control are unlikely to be of help, except for providing humanitarian relief through the UN and other agencies.Read the full article in ThePrint

Organic farming should not be an article of faith

Earlier this month, the Rajapaksa government imposed a state of emergency in Sri Lanka after its bungled response to a brewing foreign exchange crisis cascaded into food shortages. An army general has been put in charge of catching both hoarders of food and holders of foreign currency. Like a Greek tragedy, we know how things will unfold, but well-wishers of the Sri Lankan people are powerless to stop the avoidable suffering that lies ahead.

Running out of foreign exchange amid an economic downturn and with looming debt-servicing obligations, the Sri Lankan government imposed a slew of import controls earlier this year. Banning the import of automobiles, toilet fixtures, Venetian blinds, toothbrush handles and turmeric is one thing, but a complete ban on fertilizers is entirely another. Domestic production is critical for any food-importing country facing a foreign exchange crisis. In Sri Lanka’s case, it is even more important because it is a major exporter of tea. The fertilizer ban has left Sri Lanka both short of food and US dollars.Read the full article here.

The Taliban Government and What it Means for India

Taliban has again done what it does best: make vague promises, extract concessions, and return to their original plan. Meanwhile, the interlocutors continue to extract more promises from the Taliban — hoping that the group has changed — only to return disappointed. This cycle repeats. Afghans suffer.The newly announced Taliban government is a good illustration of this now-familiar playbook. Former President Hamid Karzai and the Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah's presence in Qatar gave an impression that an interim government with broader representation is in the works. The Taliban made the right noises all through the Doha agreement negotiations about creating an inclusive government. But when the government was finally announced, it was anything but inclusive.Read the full article on TOI+

Instead of Taliban talks, India must stand up for Afghan resistance despite Panjshir fall

Kabul fell to the Taliban on 15 August 2021. On 18 August, Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmed Shah Massoud, appealed to the West for help from Panjshir – “No matter what happens, my mujahideen fighters and I will defend Panjshir as the last bastion of Afghan freedom. Our morale is intact. We know from experience what awaits us. But we need is more weapons, more ammunition, and more supplies. America and its democratic allies do not just have to fight against terrorism in common with Afghans. We now have a long history made up of shared ideals and struggles. There is still much that you can do to aid the cause of freedom. You are our only remaining hope.”

The appeal has been met with silence from the officialdom of concerned countries. Counterterrorism in Afghanistan seems to be beggared. However, neither the Soviets nor the Taliban during its earlier stint has been able to control Panjshir. This time around, the challenge is greater but the resistance forces in Afghanistan rely on their grit, history and geography. Reports indicate that some elements of the Afghan Armed Forces including its Special Forces have joined the Panjshiris. The offensive on Panjshir is ongoing and indicate that the Taliban has captured major parts of Panjshir without much resistance. But with the Taliban capture of Panjshir, they will find it difficult to retain control as the Panjshiris could rely on guerilla tactics and terrain to raise the costs for the Taliban. The lack of resistance to the Taliban offensive is indicative of this possibility. The defenders have not surrendered but may have disappeared to fight another day.Read the full article in ThePrint

How should India's Vaccine Mandate Policy look like?

The recent wave of Covid-19 infections across the United States has been a setback for employers, schools, and universities who were readying to open their offices and campuses. From a "no mask needed for the fully vaccinated" policy 50 days back to vaccines being made compulsory by both state administrations and private companies alike, the Covid-19 vaccine has become imperative for the recovery process from the pandemic.Given the population size of India and the current pace of vaccinations in the country, the threat of future waves of Covid-19 infections still looms large. Recently, employer institutions (both government as well as private) along with public service provider businesses in the country have mandated the Covid-19 vaccine for their employees and customers, respectively.But if there is a vaccine mandate issued in India, what would be the ideal strategy for implementing it?

India must look to BIMSTEC to drive economic growth

The Indian economy had seen sluggish growth even before the pandemic itself. Covid-19 has exacerbated the situation and the floundering economy has not been able to pick up growth as anticipated.There is a need to reinvent the way the economy is functioning to stimulate the necessary growth. India’s role as an export-oriented economy has never been bright. This is something the state can tap into. The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) can help India and the region rebound from the slump and develop economic heft on the global stage.

Should India worry about China's military exercises in Tibet?

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army is undertaking more military exercises across all theatre commands, including Tibet,  to be prepared for real-time contingencies. It recently conducted two days and one night, combined armed forces, blue versus red army military exercises in Tibet last week. Its Tibet Military District (TMD) reportedly deployed more than ten combat units for these military exercises. These units were divided into two teams, the blue and red armies. The red army was the PLA, while the blue army most likely resembled India. This is not the first time such exercises were conducted by the PLA’s TMD, Western Theatre Command (WTC) or Xinjiang Military District’s (XMD) South Xinjiang Military Command – all three are directly or indirectly responsible for a contingency on the border with India.The article was originally published in the Times of India's TOI+ 

Exploring a new geopolitical partnership — the India-Russia-Japan triangle

Read the full article on Hindustan Times

It helps that India has strong ties with both Russia and Japan. Delhi shares common security and economic interests with Tokyo, and the two Quad members face a common adversary in China

India is looking to make significant moves in an oft-neglected patch of the Indo-Pacific. It is exploring the possibility of a special trilateral meeting between India, Russia and Japan during the upcoming sixth edition of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, Russia.

Engagement with Russia in its pacific territory will help India look beyond the Quad grouping and also pursue its goals of economic partnerships in Russia’s Far East.

Read the full article on Hindustan Times

Xi Jinping’s CCP is daring to go where even Taliban wouldn’t — separate kids from smartphones

The strongest of the four fundamental forces known to modern physics is called, well, the strong force. At the same distance it is 137 times stronger than electromagnetism and 10³⁸ times more powerful than gravity. The strong force keeps sub-atomic particles attached to each other.

Modern physicists who are also modern parents know better. The strongest force in nature is the one that keeps teenagers attached to smartphones.

A lot of energy is required to separate them and the outcome is exothermic, exosonic and often explosive. I have written about my experiments with this area of physics in a Debates with my Daughters column.So when some of my colleagues wondered whether the Taliban 2.0 regime in Kabul would ban smartphones, I responded that it would be quite unlikely. Telephone penetration in Afghanistan in the 1990s during Mullah Omar’s days was negligible. It is over 70% today in a country where half the population is less than 18 years old. The Talibs themselves are probably more addicted to smartphones than the other addictive substances available in their country; although like people around the world they are bound to claim that they need the phone for work-related purposes.

Climate Change Is the Biggest Threat to Indian Ocean Security

“The Indian Ocean is warming at a higher rate than the other oceans around the world,” revealed Swapna Panickal, a meteorological scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, based on the recently released IPCC report. This is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the issues concerning the Indo-Pacific. But the threat of an existential crisis due to natural disasters for a number of island states in the region requires a joint plan of action to tackle the current situation.The dormant Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) has the ability – and the need – to take the initiative on protecting the region’s interests amid the unfolding climate crisis.

Russia-China alliance could be shaken by fisheries

Read the full article on Asia TimesBeijing may be trying to coerce Moscow into letting it fish gratis in Russian watersSince at least 2014, Russia and China have seen their interests conflating against the United States and its allies. It is no surprise that both Russia and China (and their adversaries) see this “alliance” as flexible, pragmatic and based on mutual benefit, but not at the expense of either party’s distinct national interests – especially economic.With the recent joint military exercises, hysterical discourse around a supposed joint Russia-China front across domains is emerging, yet despite this, not all is well between the Dragon and the Bear.An undeclared quasi trade war on fisheries is ongoing between Russia and China. As early as October 2020, Russian media reported Chinese authorities were restricting fisheries imports from the Russian Far East.With the Covid-19 pandemic raging, the cited reason was “traces of the coronavirus on the seafood’s outer packaging.” This may have had some overlap with Chinese authorities’ desire to deflect the blame over the origins of the Covid-19 virus in Wuhan, China.Almost 60% of Russian seafood exports have been to the Chinese market alone, in previous years. The restrictions are still in force, and the response of the Chinese authorities has been less than engaging. The Russian Far East’s fisheries economy is set to bear losses in the range of 27% decline in revenue.For a measure of how drastic the situation has been, in March, Alexei Chekunkov, the Russian minister for the development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, went so far as to say that Far Eastern fishermen can safely delete the year 2021 from their calendar.The most affected regions in Russia are Sakhalin Oblast and Kamchatka Krai, which export much of their fish to China. In response to the crisis, the Russian fishing industry refuses to adopt a defeatist approach. Its efforts have been multifaceted – finding new alternatives to the Chinese market, seeking economic state intervention from the Russian government, and pushing for mitigating measures at relevant joint forums with China.Read the full article on Asia Times

NDA, military can learn from US how to tweak standards for women without sacrificing fitness

Gender justice in the Armed Forces won yet another round when the Supreme Court passed an interim order to allow women to take the admission exam to the National Defence Academy, or NDA, that is scheduled for 5 September this year. Kush Kalra’s writ petition invoked the Articles pertinent to Fundamental Rights while the Additional Solicitor General, relied for defence, upon the principle of judicial non-interference in policy matters. In reality, the defence had no chance, for the ramparts of the male bastion had already suffered a major breach in early 2020 when the Supreme Court had passed orders for grant of permanent commission to women officers in the Army. The case took a decade to be decided. Justice was delayed but not denied.

While the previous battles for gender justice were confined to serving women officers, simultaneous thrusts are now aimed at the Armed Forces entry system. The Supreme Court is also hearing a petition regarding denial of admission to girls in the Sainik Schools. However, in November 2019, the Ministry of Defence had already announced its decision on opening Sainik schools for girls.Read the full article in ThePrint

It makes sense to extract value from underutilized public assets

This article was first published in The Mint.HLL Biotech, a government-owned company, has a state-of-the-art vaccine manufacturing plant near Chennai. It has been mothballed since 2012. Last week, the Supreme Court heard a petition pleading the court to direct the government to use it to produce Covaxin, amid the current shortage. Across the country, public assets like roadside parking slots, municipal grounds and advertising surfaces are free-for-all, often captured by the rich, powerful and unscrupulous. The police and defence services have parade grounds in city centres that are used only a few days every year. The true cost of these parades may not be visible to accountants but is staggering for economists.

I could cite more examples, but the scale at which India wastes its public assets boggles the mind. Imposing parking charges on a mere 1.5% of Bengaluru city roads could add 5% to its annual budget. Yet, oblivious to their own wealth, or unable to monetize it, India’s governments rely on taxes and devolved funds to fill their coffers.It is easy to blame corruption and inefficiency for the poor state of public services like policing, health, education, transport and so on. What a lot of people miss is that there’s only so much you can do when you are cash strapped. The simple truth is that governance and public services cannot improve unless public finances are substantially bolstered.That is why the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP), announced by the finance minister last week, should be welcomed. Ambitious financial targets apart, to the extent that it creates public awareness that the government should extract value from its assets, it marks a desirable shift in thinking. Niti Aayog’s policy documents show how the monetization model can be adopted by state, municipal and rural governments. If the idea catches on, post-pandemic revenue-starved governments across the country could find new resources to finance higher demands on public expenditure.I know what you are thinking. What about corruption and cronyism, right? Well, yes, however well intentioned the policy is, however well designed the contracts are, corruption is inevitable. But if we allow this objection to have a veto, then we will only have corruption, cronyism and sanctimony, but no public policy of any kind. The practical solution, therefore, is to make the policy design corruption-resistant, insist on transparency, promote market competition and punish wrong-doers.‘Monetize assets but do not assign monopolies’ is a good rule of thumb. There are sensible things that can be done to prevent egregious outcomes: Do not shelter companies from competition, do not give away exclusive rights and do not fix prices. Some of these can be built into contracts, while others are broader statutory and regulatory issues.By leasing out assets instead of selling them outright to private investors, the NMP strikes a middle ground between statists and reformers. But this political compromise might be its biggest economic limitation. As anyone who has rented out a home knows, the tenant somehow takes less care of the property than the owner would like. The friend who borrows your vehicle somehow seems to return it in a poorer condition. Some of this is to do with the psychology of ownership, but some of it is objectively true. Owners and tenants have different incentive structures.Now the government faces the remarkable situation of ensuring that a private-sector lessee maintains an asset to standards the public sector itself is not capable of. Competition and market forces can help to some extent, but the private-sector management can just as well decide to cut costs by skimping on the maintenance of assets it doesn’t own. So the NMP implementation should allocate assets in a way that the lessee has a natural incentive for their upkeep.Ownership matters in other ways as well. If you determine that your asset is unprofitable, you could split it and sell the parts, reconfigure them in different ways, merge them with other parts, or perhaps even scrap them all. Where such creative destruction is necessary for viability, a long-term lease is a poor substitute for ownership.We are also likely to find that defining an asset clearly and delineating it physically is a tricky affair. The legal and physical boundaries of public assets are often unclear. Most assets are often surrounded by grey areas. These grey areas have well-developed interest groups that are invested in the status quo. Questions on asset boundaries and the resolution of ownership of grey areas can be vexing and time-consuming. Among other things, they will determine the kind of investor who will bid for the asset.When considering long-term relationships, getting good investors is more important than getting the highest price. This is something that our administrative system will struggle with. It is zealous about extracting the last paisa, but has few ways of ensuring discretion and good judgement.Ultimately, the NMP will deliver public value to the extent that the government shows itself to be a law-abiding player. It is just as well that the ghastly retrospective tax law was done away with before this new policy was announced. It has a better chance now.Nitin Pai is co-founder and director of The Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy

Why China is Building Missile Silos

Satellite pictures have revealed what appears to be an ongoing Chinese project to prepare vast new fields of missile silos that could possibly be used to launch nuclear weapons at China’s adversaries, including the United States and India. Why is China digging these silos?

Satellite images have revealed that China is building at least three missile silo fields in Yumen in Gansu province, near Hami in Xinjiang province, and at Hanggin Banner, Ordos City, in Inner Mongolia.

It appears that China is constructing around 120 missile silos at Yumen, around 110 silos in Hami, and 29 in the Hanggin Banner field. Earlier this year, 16 missile silos were detected in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force’s (PLARF) Jilantai training area, also in Inner Mongolia.This was originally published in The Indian Express. Picture Credit: Planet Labs Inc. and the Indian Express.

India’s domestic politics makes China-Pakistan nexus more potent in Taliban era

The establishment of the ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’ on 19 August was announced through a tweet from the handle of its official spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid. The common wisdom in India is that terrorist threats to India would increase because Afghanistan will be used as a haven, as it happened during the earlier period of the Taliban rule in 1996-2001 with the hijacking of the Indian Airlines plane in December 1999 being a prime example.

The only problem is that this time around India’s vulnerability has exponentially increased, not so much by the increase in the scale of threat as by India’s domestic political trajectory, which may have set itself up. It would not take much for India’s adversaries to light the fire that exploits modern India’s historically rooted communal fault line.

The setup was symbolised through the announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India would observe 14 August as ‘Partition Horrors Remembrance Day’. Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran described the announcement as a move aimed “to reopen the wounds of yesteryear, to reignite ugly passions, where past horrors are regurgitated so they may be re-enacted with renewed passion”.Read the full article in ThePrint

What Taliban's victory means for Pakistan and therefore India

This article was first published in the Times of IndiaTaliban's takeover of Kabul is forcing India to reassess its aims and objectives concerning Afghanistan. Of primary interest is the impact of this development on Pakistan. On this question, two views have come to light over the last few days.The first view cautions against the increase in terrorism from Pakistan. The recommendation arising from this view is that India needs to coalesce anti-Pakistan factions in Afghanistan. The counter-view focuses on the inevitability of a split between the Taliban and Pakistan. The assumption being that once the Taliban assumes political control over Afghanistan, it is bound to take some stances that will go against the interests of its sponsor. The recommendation arising from this view is that India should sit back. It should let things unfold because Pakistan's victory is a Cadmean one — it comes with massive costs for Pakistan's economy, society, and politics.Which of these two divergent views is likely to play out?To understand what the Taliban's victory means for Pakistan — and hence India — it is useful to model Pakistan as two geopolitical entities, not one. The first entity is a seemingly normal Pakistani state, presumably concerned first and foremost with the peace and prosperity of its citizens. The second entity is what my colleague Nitin Pai has named the Pakistani military-jihadi complex (MJC). Comprising the military, militant, radical Islamist and political-economic nodes, the MJC pursues domestic and foreign policies to ensure its survival and dominance. For the MJC, positioning and defeating the existential enemy — India — is key to ensure its hold over the other Pakistan.Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan will be perceived differently by these two Pakistani entities. The non-MJC Pakistan would be worried about the Taliban's march to power. It would fear the spillover of terrorism inside its borders, orchestrated by groups such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Politically, a powerful Taliban would pose the threat of breathing new life in the Durand Line question. On the economic front, the prospect of a dependent Taliban government further draining Pakistan's dwindling resources would be another cause of concern. In short, if this entity were in charge of Pakistan's foreign policy, it wouldn't have doggedly invested in the Taliban.That's quite clearly not the case. Taliban's takeover, on the other hand, is a strategic victory for the MJC. Over the last two decades, it has played a risky game sheltering and guiding the Taliban's actions while also supporting the US in its Afghanistan campaign. When things went wrong, the MJC was able to pass the blame to the other, weaker Pakistan. Recently, it played a role in steering the Afghan Taliban to sign the Doha agreement. It worked over the last two decades to reduce the Indian economic and political footprint in Afghanistan. Given the efforts it has put in, the MJC is sure to perceive the Taliban's comeback as an indisputable victory. This success would bolster the MJC's strategy of long-term commitment to terrorist groups. More importantly, it consolidates its relative dominance over the other Pakistan.

How does this affect India?

As the MJC's domestic position strengthens, its anti-India aims will grow stronger. There is a possibility of the MJC moving its terror outfits to Loya Paktika in eastern Afghanistan, a hotbed of anti-India activities in the past. This scenario would allow the MJC to use terrorism against India while claiming it has no control over these elements.Many commentators have argued that the world in 2021 will not let off perpetrators of terrorism easily. But they seem to forget that the return of the Taliban illustrates that the opposite is true. As long as terrorism is portrayed as an instrument of a domestic insurgency, the world will continue to look away. For instance, the Taliban continued terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan even as it was negotiating with the US at Doha. And yet, the US, UK, Russia, and China chose to bring the group back in power.Second, to see the MJC threat from the issue of terrorism alone is to miss the bigger picture. By demonstrating the success of its policies in Afghanistan, the MJC would be energised to use other methods of asymmetric warfare against India. More than the means, the Taliban's victory is the reaffirmation of its objectives.

What should India do?

First and foremost, India must prepare for a reduced economic and diplomatic footprint in Afghanistan. Given the positive role India has played there over the last two decades, a sunk cost fallacy might drive India to make overtures to the Taliban. Such a policy is unlikely to pay dividends. The MJC will ensure that India's presence is severely restricted. In Afghanistan, it would be better to wait for the tide to change.Second, India would need to raise its guard on the Pakistan border. With the perceived threat of Indian presence close to Balochistan going away, the MJC is likely to be more adventurous in using conventional and non-conventional warfare against India. Domestically, it means returning Jammu & Kashmir to near-normalcy becomes all the more urgent. More the discontent there, the easier it would be for the MJC to exploit the situation.Third, strengthen the partnership with the US. The MJC has always been dependent on external benefactors for its survival. While China is playing that role today, it alone is insufficient to bear the burden. The MJC will be desperate to get the US to finance its ambitions based on its credentials to influence outcomes in Afghanistan. Hence, it's vital that India's relationship with the US must remain stronger than the relationship that MJC has with the US. Finally, amidst the current focus on US failures in Afghanistan, it shouldn't be forgotten that both India and the US need each other to confront the bigger strategic challenge: China.Regardless of the turn that Taliban-Pakistan relations take, an ideological victory for the MJC is bound to have repercussions in India. India must prepare to face the renewed challenge.