Delay in appointing new CDS after Gen. Rawat—Is it about passing the loyalty test?

The sudden and tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, along with twelve others in a helicopter crash is a mortal blow by the hand of fate. Ironically, the CDS’ demise also reverberates across the fate of some senior military leaders who might find themselves being either advantaged or disadvantaged in terms of career progression. Depending on whosoever among the eligible is appointed, a chain reaction along the military hierarchy could change individual fates. Eligibility for the CDS post has been shaped to provide the political leadership to select from a fairly wide range of choices in two domains— serving and retired. The external choice is restricted to former Chiefs not above the age of sixty-five. The internal choice can even be a three-star. So technically, all serving three or four stars are eligible. This is as wide a choice as can be. So, till the announcement of the appointment is made, speculation and conspiracy theories can be expected to run riot.

Three Reasons Why China’s Tech Prowess is Overhyped

If one were to judge the technological prowess of a nation-state on the basis of daily news, China comes across as heads and shoulders above the rest. Hardly any day passes by without reports reminding us that China is well on its path to creating a self-reliant technology industry. While China’s technological progress is quite real, I want to list three caveats to make you recalibrate exponential growth projections and over-optimistic predictions about China’s tech ecosystem.

The Implications of Mutual Assured Vulnerability for the Indo-Pacific Region

China’s nuclear modernisation might establish stability in the US-China nuclear dyad. However, it would have a cascading effect on the nuclear and conventional competition in the Indo-Pacific region

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undertaken the qualitative and quantitative modernisation of its nuclear arsenal. In the past two years, China has constructed around 250-300 missile silos, tested a new hypersonic missile system, fielded at least two brigades of its road-mobile DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), handed over two Jin-class submarines to the People’s Liberation Army — one of which (Changzheng 18) was commissioned to enter service in April 2021, and continued deploying more road-mobile DF-31 AG launchers and dual-use DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs).

Technology will be at the Forefront of Biden's Summit for Democracy

The Summit is not just about democracy. It signals the intent of the Biden administration to unite the world’s democracies for protection of individual liberties. This brings us to the area of technology which is now at the heart of protecting democratic values. There is a need for global consensus among all democratic states to arrive at a common technology governance framework that is in line with the democratic rights of citizens. The summit will be a platform for states to find the right balance of governance with respect to regulation and freedom in the technology sphere. The future of multilateralism lies in the creation of need-based coalitions focusing on specific areas of technology cooperation.

Sydney Dialogue Pointed the Need for Global Tech Governance

The month of November saw the world’s first-ever conference dedicated to emerging and critical technologies. The Sydney Dialogue, a brainchild of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), was held virtually from November 17-19.The presence of and the delivery of keynote addresses from key political leaders emphasized the criticality of the dialogue. In the current digital and information age, emerging technologies have become an intrinsic part of everybody’s lives as well as tools of statecraft. There was a common vision echoed throughout the discussions: The design, deployment, and usage of these technologies need effective regulations to minimize the harms and maximize the benefits that critical and emerging technologies have to offer.

The Price of the Question - Expectations from the India-Russia Summit

The Russian-Indian summit meeting, scheduled for December 6 in Delhi, is designed to breathe new life into the strategic partnership between Moscow and Delhi. The long list of issues that have accumulated for discussion after the forced pause in personal communication between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi caused by the coronavirus pandemic is not limited to defence purchases and the joint production of weapons.

Read the full article in Russian on Kommersant.ru

The contest to create the web's third generation has intensified

There are now three broad visions for the future of the internet. The first is a transformation into what Tim Berners-Lee calls “Web 3.0", a network that understands natural language and, depending on who you ask, will be open and ubiquitous, allow users to take back control from corporations and governments, and include billions of Things like sensors, robots and kitchen sinks. This vision is promoted by veterans and purists who believe that Big Tech’s dominance undermines open protocols that enable the internet, and also by many in the tech community who resent the market power of Google, Meta, Apple and Amazon. For their part, the world’s biggest tech companies see that it will be harder to grow at the giddy rates they are used to, and sprawling across various sectors can only take them so far. That’s why Mark Zuckerberg is promoting the second vision, that of a “metaverse", an immersive 3-D virtual reality world where everyone will have to wear goggles to plug in. Beyond Meta (previously Facebook), Microsoft, Roblox and many other companies are throwing their weight behind this vision while trying to get to the head of the queue.

Needed: Intelligent act to regulate AI

The 41st General Conference of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) concluded on 24 November 2021 with a major step on the global development of norms on the use and regulation of Artificial Intelligence (AI).193 member states of UNESCO signed and adopted the draft AI Ethics Recommendation. It can be touted as the first globally accepted normative standard-setting instrument in the realm of AI. The voluntary, non-binding commitment is a major point of cooperation between States and leaders in identifying principles of ethics in the regulation AI systems that find wide application in today’s world.

Omicron Scare - Why International Travel Ban Will Do India More Harm than Good

The possibility of another disastrous wave in the country has increased with the discovery of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, and two such cases being detected in Karnataka. This has come along with the Union government issuing new travel guidelines on November 30. A likelihood of the country putting a partial or complete international travel ban is doing the rounds. Recently, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal issued a statement urging the government to not further delay the curbs on international flights. But contrary to popular belief, an immediate air travel ban can do more harm than good. Moreover, the question arises: is it economically feasible, logically valid and morally correct? 

India Needs a 20-Year Semiconductor Strategy

To succeed in semiconductor manfacturing, it is essential to reflect on the difference between being able to manufacture one line of chips and achieving semiconductor self-sufficiency or even becoming a key manufacturer. The current discourse masks this difference. The dominant narrative suggests that India is in a do or die situation, one in which building a fab now implies the elimination of critical strategic vulnerabilities. In contrast, another failure means India is resigned to a position of weakness in the information age. This understanding is misplaced. Getting one fab going will not make India a key manufacturer. We will still be dependent on manufacturing equipment, designs, and chips manufactured outside India. India needs to drop the dream of swadeshi semiconductors. Instead, it should aim to become a key player in a trusted, plurilateral semiconductor ecosystem that keeps key adversaries out. In our view, at least five specific parts of the puzzle need to fall in place.

Iran-Pakistan Rivalry In Afghanistan Works for India

The Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan held in New Delhi on November 10 marks India’s re-entry into the contested landscape of Af-Pak geopolitics. However, due to the regional states’ differing focus on the terrorism threat, refugee crisis, regional stability etc, Indian concerns about the repercussions of ISI activities in Afghanistan will likely remain a low priority for most regional powers, except Iran. It’s Iran that has both the interest and resources to resist Pakistan’s domination in Afghanistan.

How to prevent accidental wars? Strongmen Putin, Xi, Modi can be triggers

The virtual meeting on 15 November between Presidents Joe Biden of the US and Xi Jinping of China could hopefully be the forerunner to a dialogue process that was so far missing in action. The relationship had turned openly hostile, and the drift towards armed conflict due to misjudgement and miscommunication needed repair. Some political and military leaders had been warning of the risk of an accidental war—a possibility that could have driven both leaders to acknowledge the danger.

Effective communication about COVID-19 could save lives – but India’s strategy has been flawed

Over the past few decades, public health emergencies across the globe have shown us that a timely and efficient risk communication plan could help in minimising fatalities and managing situations on the ground. In unprecedented circumstances such as the Covid-19 pandemic, implementing effective communication methods becomes even more necessary. At the start of the pandemic, it was critical for the Union government to use all means to convey the gravity of the situation to the public. To do so, several communication plans were devised in order to maximise efficiency while minimising casualties.

Farm Laws lays bare India’s Internal Disunity. It’s Time to Fix it

To some Indians, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise announcement about repealing the three farm laws may be viewed as a victory for democracy. The forces at play in the political economy may have demonstrated their democratic strength. But India might have lost. For, there is no dispute that India’s economically and strategically important agriculture sector is in dire need of reform. Another thing that India needs to watch out for is that a weakened government, civil unrest, and inability to carry forward important economic reforms can all be exploited by foes.

Time for a Global Ban on Satellite Destruction Tests

Russia is a top-rung space power. In terms of technological capabilities, it ranks alongside the US and even surpasses it in some areas. The Russian establishment has a highly sophisticated understanding of the space domain. Moscow’s intellectual horsepower in space science, economics and strategy is outstanding. The Soviet Union and its successor, the Russian Federation, have demonstrated no less responsibility towards the preservation and protection of space for human activities than any other power. That is what makes Moscow’s anti-satellite (ASAT) test surprising.

If not for the internet...

One of the most interesting things about living in a small town is discovering bits of history where you thought none existed. The pandemic has forced me to move back to my hometown, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh. As a city, Kanpur has a rich colonial history and was an eventful place during 1857.Last week, I listened to the Kanpur and Lucknow episode of the Musafir Stories (an excellent podcast). I learned about 'Baron Carlo Marochetti Road', or as it is known today in the city, 'Doodhwali Gali'. The Baron Marochetti Road is named after an Italian-French sculptor who was responsible for sculpting the Cawnpore Memorial. This monument represents the loss of 73 women and 124 children in July 1857.Read the full article in Deccan Herald

The Race for the Domination of AI Chips

With AI and advanced semiconductor technology an integral part of Industry 4.0, the impact of AI chips on the global technology landscape will gradually evolve in the coming decade.  The concept of new applications of semiconductors is gradually emerging and the concept of using artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms on high-end chipsets has opened an entirely new market for these devices, also known as AI chips. 

India’s Coal Stance at COP26 was about Money-Party Politics Poses Danger to Long-Term Goals

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, or the COP26, concluded in Glasgow on 13 November. India’s stand on coal birthed a narrative that projected an image of being a ‘hold-out’. China was a hold-out as well, but in terms of image, it managed to stay in the shadow. The light was more on India.

A single phrase struck a deal between India, China and the US. In all probability, there must be more than a grain of truth in it. That phrase was ‘out or down’. To put it in context, it must relate to the common word ‘phase’. The option was about the ‘phase-out’ or ‘phase-down’ of the use of coal. Prior to the contention raised in relation to coal, the US and China—the two largest contributors to climate change and also the largest coal polluters—had used the word ‘phase down’ in a mutual agreement signed between them. India (as the third-largest coal polluter) and China insisted on ‘phase down’ in the final declaration, which could only then be passed unanimously. Both held onto the word and the US made it possible. India may have won its battle but could be poised to lose the larger war.

Read the full article in ThePrint

Why India shouldn't allow COVID-19 booster dose

The Delta variant caused a fresh wave of Covid-19 infections worldwide, aggravating the global public health catastrophe. The currently available Covid-19 vaccines are effective against the Delta variant, which prompted researchers to evaluate whether booster doses for vaccinated people are necessary and when they should be given. The objective of the booster dose is to extend vaccine efficacy in people already administered with primary vaccination. However, this decision should be taken after careful analysis of the necessity of boosters and their timing. India, however, should refrain from administering booster doses to its population until further studies are done to show its utility.Read the full article in the Deccan Herald

Delhi declaration marks India’s return to Afghanistan

On November 10, India hosted the third Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan in New Delhi. Unlike the past two iterations sponsored by Iran, the Delhi Meet was conspicuous by the absence of Afghan officials from the dialogue. The new Afghan regime dominated by the Haqqani Network was not invited to the meeting, whereas its prime backer, Pakistan, was invited but refused to attend, calling India a “spoiler” to the peace in Afghanistan. Beijing, a close ally of Islamabad, also opted out of the meeting, citing “scheduling difficulties”.Yet, the meeting in New Delhi led by NSA Ajit Doval remains vital to the geopolitical developments in the region. The meeting was attended by top security officials of Russia, Iran and the five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.What came out of the Delhi Declaration? The deterioration of regional security due to the emerging threats of terrorism, radicalisation and drug trafficking emanating from political stability in Afghanistan remained the focus of the meeting. In the Delhi Declaration, the common concerns of the participants came out prominently with their reiteration of “strong support” for stability in Afghanistan and a call for “non-interference in its internal affairs”. They also emphasised that Afghanistan’s territory should not be used for “sheltering, training, planning or financing any terrorist acts” against the neighbours and reaffirmed their “firm commitment to combat terrorism in all its form and manifestations”.While Pakistan was not named, the Iranian concerns with the ISI domination in Afghanistan came into the forefront with the participants’ stress upon forming an “open and truly inclusive government” that includes all the “major ethno-political forces in the country”. It is important to note that ever since the Taliban victory in August 2015, Iran has consistently raised the issue of the exclusion of Persian/Dari speaking minority groups from the government. Mainly, the role of the ISI in imposing a Haqqani Network dominated government in Afghanistan had elicited strong reactions in Tehran. Though the Taliban had subsequently included some members from northern Afghanistan, it is clear that Iran would continue to focus on securing its allies’ interests in Afghanistan.The importance given to “providing humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan” in the Delhi Declaration also high- lighted India’s concerns. From the Indian point of view, the participant countries’ support for humanitarian assistance to be provided in an “unimpeded, direct and assured manner to Afghanistan” was a gesture of support for New Delhi’s efforts to send aid to Afghanistan. It also underlines the regional opposition to Islamabad’s obstructive tactics in refusing to allow transit permission to the trucks waiting on the Indian side of the border. Similarly, the Declaration’s mention of the “central role” of the UN in Afghanistan was tacit approval of the UNSC resolution 2593, which prohibits safe havens to terror outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, passed during India’s presidency of the Security Council in August this year.Has India got its focus back on Afghanistan? Ever since the Taliban victory, New Delhi has struggled to remain relevant to the developments in Kabul. On the other hand, having secured its strategic depth on its western border, Pakistan’s determination to not let India play any major role in Afghanistan is a geographic reality that remains difficult to overcome.In this regard, making a common cause with other regional powers is the only feasible solution for New Delhi. By hosting a regional security meeting on Afghanistan, India has belatedly underscored its security concerns with the regional developments. While the prospects of the Taliban-Pakistan fallout remain high until the ISI’s domination generates domestic backlash in Afghanistan, a concerted effort with like-minded regional powers is the only option for regional stability.This article was published in Newstrail newspaper on November 12, 2021.