As China Threat Looms Over Taiwan, This Is How India Can Keep Global Chip Industry Afloat

As the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues, questions have been raised about how this might affect China’s decision-making process on Taiwan. The island nation remains under threat from potential Chinese aggression and its lucrative semiconductor industry hangs in the balance. India, as a growing semiconductor power, must look at Taiwan closely on technology cooperation in the domain and should not shy away from building a semiconductor alliance with the country. It is imperative that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry be protected in case of external aggression by building redundancy and resiliency through partnerships with key states like India.

The Effect Of Tech Sanctions On The Russian Economy

During the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, the West (mainly the United States and its NATO allies) have been looking at deterrence mechanisms to curtail Russia's continuous military offensives. The current actions taken against Russia have mainly been in the form of targeting the Russian economy through sanctions and embargoes specifically targeting sectors that Russia relies on for export revenues. The recent announcement by President Joe Biden on banning Russian oil, gas, and energy imports to the US is just one of the decisions that are hitting the core of the economy. But, the US, has also specifically introduced high-tech sanctions mainly depriving Russia the access to critical technologies (like semiconductors, quantum, artificial intelligence, and big data) and their applications. 

How Emerging Technologies Are Driving China’s Readiness For Modern Warfare

In this year’s annual session of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang presented a finance report with an estimated 1.45 trillion yuan (US$230 billion) set aside for defence spending in 2022. Although that figure is an increase on last year, it is still less than the US military budget, which is expected to top US$770 billion. This translates into a significant gap in US and Chinese military power. As a result, China’s military modernisation and efforts to leverage technology in warfare have so far been directed to reduce this gap. Thus, Beijing is working to incorporate modern technology into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With the development of space and electronic warfare capabilities over the past two decades, China’s armed forces have started to embrace critical and emerging technologies.

How Western MNCs Weakened Globalisation by Taking Sides

The closing of McDonald’s in Moscow is bad news for the global economy. Whatever the military outcomes of Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, its geo-economic consequences are negative for just about every country on the planet. Even if major economies manage to absorb some of the immediate shocks created by disruptions and sanctions, the global response to the war will shift public policies around the world in a regressive direction. I hope McDonald’s exit from Russia does not mark the end of a period of global growth and prosperity—India’s included—that began with the arrival of the golden arches at Moscow’s Pushkin Square in January 1990. But I fear it does.

Missing Females: Underreporting of COVID-19 Cases Among Women Shows A Persistent And Global Problem

In the healthcare sector, relevant and accurate data has become everything. Public health across the globe can be tremendously improved with the help of accurate and timely data. But data on women’s health has always remained in the dark. Several surveys and reports have repeatedly shown that “Missing Women,” a term coined by Indian economist Amartya Sen, is a global problem. This underreporting of females has come to light yet again. A recent research study has demonstrated that many countries have failed to report female infections throughout the pandemic equally.

In a fast-paced, digital world, data becomes essential at each step. Developing a blind spot for continued underreporting adds to the “normalisation” of men representing the entire population’s health. The missing data is a significant impediment to a country’s holistic development and improvement in overall health. It is now that the world should turn towards addressing and filling in the data gap; otherwise, we would fail to produce better outcomes for women’s health.

India’s Aloof Response to the Ukraine Crisis

Read the Full Text on East Asia Forum

By: Artyom Lukin, Far Eastern Federal University and Aditya Pareek, Takshashila Institution

Moscow’s decision to recognise the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and then launch a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has created a tricky balancing act for India. Delhi’s immediate reaction to the crisis has been restrained, neutral and focused on ensuring the safety of its nationals inside Ukraine.
Several hours after Russian military action was underway, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Modi urged that all violence should be ceased immediately and reiterated India’s emphasis on diplomacy and ‘honest and sincere dialogue’ between Russia and NATO.

On 26 February 2022, the United Nations Security Council held a vote on a resolution demanding that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops. India was among the three countries to abstain, along with China and the United Arab Emirates. India’s UN envoy expressed his ‘regret that the path of diplomacy was given up’. India also abstained on a procedural resolution to call for an emergency session of the UN General Assembly.

Modi also held a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which he expressed ‘his deep anguish about the loss of lives and properties’ but refrained from directly criticising Russia.

The India–Russia relationship is officially characterised as a ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’. The entente between Moscow and Delhi dates back decades. Though the bond is no longer the de facto alliance it once was in the 1970s and 1980s, Moscow remains Delhi’s an important strategic partner, on par with the United States. The two nations don’t have any significant areas of disagreement and both share a fundamental interest in a multipolar balance of power in Eurasia.

India relies on Russia for the majority of its imported military equipment, nuclear submarine technology and some vital space faring technology. A highlight of India–Russian defence cooperation has been the US$5.43 billion deal for the S-400 air defence system, which Russia began delivering in December 2021. Russian-made weapons are critical to India’s ability to counter its main external threat — China.

There are also perhaps ideational factors behind India’s reluctance to censure Russian actions toward Ukraine. The conflict over Ukraine may have some parallels with India’s historic traumas. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union that led to the birth of an independent Ukraine was not dissimilar to the partition of the British Raj, which produced India and Pakistan, two culturally close but still antagonistic entities. Putin characterises the modern state of Ukraine in antagonistic terms as an ‘anti-Russia’ project.

Western powers portray the conflict as a struggle between an imperialistic autocracy and a young democracy, but Delhi may not buy this narrative. India has always been somewhat sceptical about the US-led discourse on liberal democracy. This remains the case despite the Westernisation of Indian elites. Under Modi, India has been evolving in an illiberal and ethno-nationalistic direction. It is an open secret that India wants to maintain its sphere of influence in parts of South Asia.

India does not have many significant security interests in Europe, which helps explain its relative aloofness to the Ukraine crisis. But Delhi does have some stakes in Ukraine. For instance, the Indian Space Research Organisation’s semi cryogenic engine is being developed based on Ukrainian supplied RD-810 designs and many Indian navy warships depend on Ukrainian gas turbines, including those under construction at Russian shipyards. So India has a national security stake in not alienating Ukraine.

Another reason for India’s repeated calls for the cessation of violence, de-escalation and resolving the situation through diplomacy is high energy prices, which may negatively affect India’s stressed economy.

The Role of Space in the Russia-Ukraine War

An escalation in space could cost more Ukrainian lives and leave Russian forces blind

The Russian special military operation launched against Ukraine is raging. Much of the action by forces on both sides is observable on land, in the air, amritime and cyber domains. curiously few – if any- details are emerging about the role of outer space in the conflict.

Ukraine War Won’t Affect Global Semiconductor Supply, But Will Hit Russia Hard

With the world still reeling from a global chip shortage, the recent crisis in Ukraine sends a bleak message to the already floundering industry. The semiconductor chip supply is yet to recover from the shock dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic. This, coupled with an impending war between two states that are contributors to the global supply chain, is detrimental to the industry’s recovery. The consumer electronics and automotive markets have been massively hit by this chip shortage. Apple, a major manufacturer of mobile phones and laptops, has pushed the release of their new line of MacBook and announced that the number of iPhone models being manufactured would be reduced due to the chip shortage. The automotive sector is still underperforming and major players have yet to resume operations at pre-pandemic levels. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia might have some implications on the global chip supply along with consequences for the Russian semiconductor industry itself.

With Eye on China, India Joins Race To Weaponise Quantum Tech in Future Military Conflicts

On February 23, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) made an announcement that went a bit under the radar but can have huge ramifications in the future for developing military technologies. The official statement given by the DRDO stated that a joint team of DRDO and IIT-Delhi successfully demonstrated a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) link for the very first time in the country between the cities of Prayagraj and Vindhyachal in the state of Uttar Pradesh. An interesting thing to note is that these cities are located at a distance of 100 kilometres from each other. This marks the beginning of the Indian military complex utilising an emerging technology like quantum to enhance domestic defensive capabilities.

India can work around Russia’s SWIFT expulsion. But there may be geopolitical costs

One of the most severe Western sanctions on Russia is freezing the Russian central bank’s assets held abroad. Russia has $630 billion in foreign exchange reserves. However, more than $300 billion worth of assets are held abroad in the Federal Reserve (US central bank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Cutting off access to these funds to Russia can be a mighty blow.

The other big action underway is excluding Russian banks from the SWIFT network, which facilitates international payments. SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is a global messaging system that allows banks to communicate with each other in a secure manner, enabling safe transfer of funds. Based in Belgium and jointly owned by 2,000 banks and financial institutions, it is the underlying technology that enables global payments and has 11,000 international banks as members.

Cutting Russia Off SWIFT Could Accelerate Beijing-Moscow Alternative Payments System

On February 24, the United Kingdom (UK) announced its “largest-ever” economic sanctions on Russia, and so did the United States (US). As the sanctions get stricter, shared economic interests and geopolitical considerations are likely to deepen economic relations between Beijing and Moscow, including the prospect of building an alternative financial system.

The signs of deepening Russia-China economic relations are evident. In an interview with a Russian newspaper amidst Russia’s recognition of rebel-held regions in Eastern Ukraine, China’s ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, spoke about possibilities of furthering cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, especially in energy, space, financial cooperation, and high-tech weapons systems. These are also the sectors targeted in the recent round of sanctions by the UK and the US. This is explicit signalling by Beijing of its support for Moscow.

There’s a jobs crisis. Acknowledge it

Every year, India’s annual Budget is elevated from a mundane accounting exercise to a statement of intent and priorities of the government at the helm. The Budget speech made by the finance minister (FM) is scrutinised to check how many times a particular sector, industry or policy issue is mentioned to gauge the government’s priorities and preferences. Jobs, by the way, was mentioned three times in the Budget speech this year.

In the speech, the FM mentioned there were initiatives in the pipeline that could create six million jobs over the next five years. That is, an average of 1.2 million jobs each year. While there is a minor sense of relief that the government is finally taking cognisance of the jobs problem (instead of relying on pakora wallahs), unfortunately, the overwhelming feeling is that of inadequacy. The vague pronouncement betrays the government’s lack of appreciation of the magnitude of the jobs problem.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy geared for Great Power Competition

The US recently came out with the latest iteration of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. The document has a clear imprint of the ongoing great-power competition across political, ideological and military-technical domains between US and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other. The document has a realist tone, admitting that the US seeks “a balance of influence in the world that is maximally favorable” to it. It is no coincidence that Russia and China take issue with the US rhetoric on a “rules-based order” that would only be advantageous to US and countries closely aligned to it. 

Understanding China’s High Tech Espionage Efforts To Modernise The Military

The Department of Defense (DoD) under the United States government recently released its yearly report on the military and security developments in China. This report, acronymised as the DoD report, gives a comprehensive understanding of the progress made by the Chinese armed forces over the year along with elucidating the future plans of the Chinese military. One of the interesting aspects of last year’s DoD report was the focus on China’s industrial espionage efforts on certain advanced technologies which the government thinks holds the key to enhancing the quality of their military systems.

India Needs A Comprehensive Space Strategy

It will not only bolster inter-organisation coordination in India’s space sector, but also help in building investor confidence and projecting the country as a responsible space power

India’s growth and prosperity in the present era is due to its ability to secure its use of outer space. With the advent of the second space age, private NewSpace companies such as SpaceX are leading the charge, and not governmental civilian space agencies or militaries. However, as outlined in the Outer Space Treaty (OST), the existing international laws hold nation-states responsible for the actions and consequences of their private space companies, citizens, and functionaries.

Why China is Talking about a 1952 Pact and ‘Equal Negotiations’ with Sri Lanka

On January 9, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded his five-nation Indian Ocean trip with his departure from Sri Lanka. During a 24-hour visit to Colombo, Wang launched the celebrations for the 65th anniversary of China-Sri Lanka relations by inaugurating the promenade of the Colombo Port City, a flagship Belt and Road project. Wang’s talks with the Sri Lankan leaders took place in the backdrop of possibly the worst foreign exchange crisis in the Island’s history. Thus, Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris commenced the talks by reminding the visitor that the proverb “a friend in need is a friend indeed, is the eternal theme of bilateral relations”. Similarly, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa thanked China for “always lending a helping hand” during Sri Lanka’s time of urgent need.

India’s Solar And Renewable Energy Push Signals Challenge To Chinese Dominance

As finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman read out her Budget speech in Parliament on 1 February, the stock prices of domestic solar manufacturers such as Adani Solar, Tata Power and Suzlon rose sharply in response to government’s big push to green energy. With India setting specific goals for the reduction of carbon emissions as seen from the signalling at the COP-26 summit, the competition for dominating the global renewable energy markets is something to watch out for.

An analysis of measures to create jobs and boost industries : Union Budget 2022-23

This is a draft version of the article published in Prajavani, which is accessible here.

India's employment rate stands between 38% - 43%, against the global employment rate of 55%. According to CMIE data, India had 53 million unemployed people in December 2021. In the last few weeks, India witnessed violent protests by job seekers. As the Indian economy recovers from the pandemic, it must create enough jobs to avert an unemployment crisis. The Union Budget has some solutions to address the same, but it might not be enough.

Read the full draft here.

The Roadmap To India’s $300 Billion Electronics Manufacturing Dream

On January 24, the Minister for Electronics and Information Technology, Ashwini Vaishnaw released the vision document on the opportunities and growth of domestic electronics manufacturing. The report was a collaboration with the Indian Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) for developing a roadmap to increase and improve the share of India’s electronics exports in the next five years. While the first volume, titled “Increasing India’s Electronics Exports and Share in GVCs”, was released in November 2021, the second volume of the vision document came out this month.

Has Russia Wrecked American ‘G-2’ Plans?

On January 10, the U.S. and Russia held an “extraordinary” session of the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue in Geneva. Unlike the previous two meetings, held in July and September last year, the recent meeting occurred against the backdrop of increasing tensions between the West and Russia. With the growing threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the table, the recent talks included both the issue of strategic stability and a Russian demand for security guarantees from the United States. While much focus has been given to NATO’s eastward expansion as a prime driver of Russian insecurity, it may instead be the Kremlin’s fear of an emergent China-U.S. “G-2” being manifested in Russian strategic behavior.