AI Adoption - Think Tasks, not Jobs

Executive Summary

This discussion document examines the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment, with a particular focus on services. It argues that while AI is highly likely to transform employment in all sectors, especially in services, when adopted responsibly, it's unlikely to cause mass unemployment in the near future. AI’s adoption in real-world settings is often slower due to factors such as implementation costs, process changes, and risk assessment. The paper proposes a framework for understanding how tasks may transition to AI, considering factors like technology maturity, return on investment (ROI), potential harm from errors, and AI explainability. The research emphasises that while some roles may be replaced, new positions may emerge to manage and oversee AI systems.

The document stresses the importance of upskilling and reskilling to adapt to an AI-driven economy. It highlights potential barriers to AI adoption, including resistance from labour unions and industry lobbies. The authors recommend that policymakers focus on helping people acquire skills necessary for an optimal transition to an AI-driven economy, and suggest that industry should focus on transitioning a significant portion of its workforce to more AI-complementary roles to maintain its competitive edge.

Authors