Pulse of the People: State of India-China Relations
Takshashila Survey Report | Published December 17, 2024
Key Takeaways
A majority of respondents (54.4%) shares the sentiment articulated by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, that the boundary dispute along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is at the front and center of the current tensions in India-China relations.
A notable group (26.6%) also believes that China’s inroads and influence in India’s neighbourhood is the second-most vital stressor in the bilateral relationship, which is a surprising result, with respondents according lower significance to more visceral factors such as China-Pakistan friendship, India-US partnership, and a massive trade asymmetry favouring China.
Regarding the 3 key aspects of bilateral economic relations, namely trade, talent, and investments, respondents have expressed a positive attitude vis-à-vis India’s greater engagement with China. A majority of them agree that greater trade with China is in India’s developmental and security interest (49.6%), and that investments from China are beneficial, especially in sectors opening up new employment opportunities for Indians (56.3%), and that Chinese talent should be welcome in India, if requisite Indian talent in a particular industry is lacking (52.4%).
The Survey asked respondents whether ties with China would have been better had President Xi Jinping not been in charge in Beijing, and if China had been a multi-party democracy similar to India. Interestingly, a vast majority (61.5%) believe that if the Chinese political ecosystem was more democratic, with multiple political parties contesting for leadership and power, India’s relations with China may well have been better.
However, many expressed uncertainty (46.6%) that if anyone other than Xi were leading China, India-China relations would be better. This indicates that there is a belief that the trajectory of the relationship between the two rising neighbours is bound to be difficult regardless of the leader in power in Beijing.
The Survey also assessed the respondents’ understanding of how external stakeholders and scenarios impact and relate to relations between India and China. Overwhelmingly, a majority of the respondents (69.2%) believe that if forced to choose, India must align closely with the US-led West, and not the China-Russia axis.
However, a majority also believe that the Quad, which is a grouping of India, the US, Japan and Australia, has only been somewhat effective (50.8%) in countering China. Many respondents (44.4%) even see it as “ineffective” in this regard.
On two key ‘red lines’ China perceives as critical to its territorial integrity, national security, and ideological stability – the issues of Tibet and Taiwan, respondents weighed in to suggest India’s policy options. When asked what India should do if both Beijing and the Tibetan Administration-in-Exile in India nominate their own successors to the current Dalai Lama, an overwhelming majority (64%) expressed support for the latter nominee. A minority believes that India must recognise neither (17.9%).
In the case of a Taiwan Strait conflict, however, attitudes are more moderate, with only a small minority (3.5%) suggesting that India get involved militarily. A larger number (28.7%) argued that India should support the US logistically in such a conflict. While some respondents (13.3%) may have advocated India has no role to play in this conflict, the overall response pattern suggests greater awareness of the regional fallout of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In this light, most respondents said that India should play the role of a peace-broker (54.4%), encouraging diplomacy and negotiation toward a peaceful resolution.
Amidst intense deliberations surrounding a solution to the ongoing tensions in India-China relations, the Survey also assessed the respondents’ opinions on the best way forward. Strengthening India’s military posture and deterrence (41.2%), and at the same time, re-starting high-level political dialogue at the level of leaders on the two sides (31%), have emerged as the two most popular policy suggestions.
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