Takshashila Position Paper - The China-Taiwan Saga
Key Judgements
This Position Paper identifies the primary stressors in the China-Taiwan relations, and studies Taiwanese public opinion on cross-strait unification. Further, the paper debates the idea of ‘reunification by force’, and what India’s options are in the overall cross-strait dynamics. Finally, the paper speculates on some indicators that might be useful to potentially predict when China might be preparing to invade Taiwan. Our examination of these issues leads us to the following key judgements:
The China-Taiwan relationship continues to develop in a dynamic fashion, with the action-reaction cycle caused by recent events potentially threatening global stability.
Chinese policies to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, coerce it militarily and interfere in its domestic politics are eroding the status quo in cross-strait relations. American support for Taiwan, including through arms sales and show of force in the region, has further exacerbated tensions, with Beijing arguing that the US was crossing a red line. Taiwan has rapidly become a central issue in US-China strategic competition.
Taiwanese public opinion, meanwhile, is strongly against any alteration of the status quo, and does not favour unification with China any time soon. Taiwanese businesses too are looking to move their major operations out of the mainland. The space for creative solutions to preserve the status quo, however, is shrinking.
Even though China has not renounced the use of force, there is no indication that an invasion is imminent. In fact, “peaceful unification” is likely to remain Beijing’s preferred option. This is because the cost of conflict is likely to have severe consequences for China’s economic development goals, which require continued integration in global value chains and access to international capital, talent and markets. This is at the heart of Xi Jinping’s strategic goal of national rejuvenation.
Instability in the Taiwan Strait has direct implications for Indian interests. India must publicly call for the maintenance of peace and stability and its opposition to the alteration of status quo in the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, India must mobilise developing countries to do the same, as they too would be among the most impacted by disruptions owing to heightened tensions and/or conflict.
India should also expand its economic and maritime partnership with the island of Taiwan and countries in the region, without basing such a partnership on an anti-China sentiment.
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