Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
Prospects of Indian and Chinese collaboration with Russia on a Joint Space Station
Read the full Article on Valdai ClubIndia’s strategic rival China has already made advances in maintaining a sustained human presence in orbit and the learning curve for India appears steep. Only collaboration with Russia can give India a leg up and may perhaps be the only path for India to catch up to China in any meaningful way, writes Aditya Pareek, Research Analyst at the Bangalore-based Takshashila Institution. Read the full Article on Valdai Club
Japan aims to toughen up its cybersecurity
World is Entering A New Moon Age
Read the full article on Times of India It will require India to do some tough space diplomacy between divergent spacefaring campsOn September 7, 2019, India’s Chandrayaan-2 Moon Lander crashed in a cloud of lunar dust no human would witness. It had experienced a “hard landing” on a desolate patch of the lunar surface. Isro chairman K Sivan called the mission “98% successful”, which implicitly acknowledged the sheer difficulty of such undertakings but also reflected the combination of optimism and determination that go into India’s spacefaring aspirations. Read the full article on Times of India
Will the Quad Tangle with the O-RAN Alliance?
By Arjun Gargeyas
While China and Huawei may have won the 5G race, all is definitely not lost for those looking to reduce their dependencies on the Chinese telecom infrastructure.Technology was a major area of focus during the first in-person summit held in the United States. The Quad has already created a working group on critical and emerging technologies to facilitate cooperation and innovation between the states. Semiconductors and 5G were the areas of focus in the technology sphere with an idea of using alternative 5G technology to create a global communications standard.A 5G deployment and diversification effort is already in the works with the “support and the critical role of Quad governments in fostering and promoting a diverse, resilient and secure telecommunications ecosystem,” as mentioned by White House officials.
This is where open radio access networks (O-RAN) and the O-RAN alliance come into the picture.
The regulation of social media can be an opportunity for India
This article was originally published in The MintChina gives us an estimate of how many people you need to effectively monitor content on the internet. The Great Firewall employs over 100,000 people to prevent around a billion Chinese internet users from accessing content Beijing considers undesirable. That is one censor for every 10,000 users. In contrast, according to Frances Haugen, a whistleblower who released internal company documents to the media recently, Facebook has around 40,000 employees keeping an eye on content posted by its 2.5 billion users around the world, or a ratio of roughly 1:70,000. Thus, the company would need to employ seven times as many people to match the Beijing standard. In fact, if we account for the fact that Facebook would need to monitor conversations in over 100 languages, it might need as many as half a million censors.Sure, artificial intelligence can perhaps reduce the headcount requirements, especially if clever humans don’t stay a step ahead of censorship rules as they generally have throughout history. Even so, if social media networks come to be mandated to monitor user content as part of the ongoing scrutiny by the world’s governments, the world will need millions of censors in the coming years. They will be called content oversight officers, online safety managers, country compliance executives, forum moderators and suchlike, but the job scope will essentially be to prevent certain types of content from spreading on their networks.There is one problem, though: Good censors are hard to find. In a speech to parliament in 1644 opposing the censorship of books, poet John Milton said: “He who is made judge to sit upon the birth or death of books... had need to be a man above the common measure, both studious, learned, and judicious. If he be of such worth as behooves him, there cannot be a more tedious and unpleasing journey-work, a greater loss of time levied upon his head, than to be made the perpetual reader of unchosen books and pamphlets... we may easily foresee what kind of licensers we are to expect hereafter, either ignorant, imperious, and remiss, or basely pecuniary." In other words, good censorship demands wise and learned people, but ends up attracting only the wrong sort. This problem will not trouble authoritarian governments very much, but social media networks concerned about free speech are bound to hit a human-resource crunch pretty soon.The demand for “a person above the common measure, both studious, learned, and judicious" is not restricted to just content moderators for social media companies. Given how deeply and profoundly the tech industry already impacts society, everyone from engineers and developers to chief executives and investors will need to have a better understanding of a range of disciplines in the social sciences. Facebook’s current troubles demonstrate how difficult it is to retrofit social responsibility and ethical considerations on business models and corporate cultures that were designed for different goals. If you are building a startup today, you are better-off paying less attention to cynical industry veterans who’ll tell you to ignore the idealistic stuff and chase the money. The next few years will likely see legislation in several major countries designed to hold big tech companies accountable for social ills caused by the use of their products.Negative and harmful content is usually more contagious, and this phenomenon is amorally exploited by growth-seeking business models to the detriment of society. Haugen’s testimony to the US Congress last week contained nothing we didn’t already know, but it is nevertheless an important milestone in the growing political realization that the negative social consequences of social media have become too serious to ignore. If lawmakers in the United States knew what to do about it, they would perhaps have done it. Unfortunately, they do not, yet. In the meantime, expect piecemeal legislation over specific issues flagged by whistleblowers and activists, tempered by the tech industry and its lobbyists.The emerging new balance between public interest, tech-industry business models and online behaviour is an opportunity for India’s tech industry and its people. In addition to technical skills, an aspiring tech entrepreneur or employee will need to be broadly educated and capable of making value judgements. Let’s be honest: Too little in our education system prepares us for this. Our smartest people can solve calculus problems, but are unlikely to know much about the ideas of Bentham or the Bhagavad Gita. Encouraging new liberal arts universities and including social-science subjects in engineering and science curriculums at the undergraduate level is part of the answer.I am also optimistic that market forces will drive companies and individuals to invest in training in ethics, responsible strategy and social impact analysis. (Full disclosure: I teach courses on these subjects at the Takshashila Institution). India’s competitive advantage in the tech economy has always been high- quality human capital at scale. The challenge now is to create millions of people who can exercise good judgement in addition to writing great code.
The Quad Makes the First Siliconpolitik Move
By Pranay Kotasthane
Summary
An earlier paper on ‘Siliconpolitik: The Case for a Quad Semiconductor Partnership’ made a detailed case for a Quad partnership on semiconductors. It argued that the Quad’s technology cooperation agenda should focus on semiconductors due to their ‘metacriticality’. Further, it reasoned that “since each Quad member enjoys a comparative advantage in a specific sub-domain of the semiconductor supply chain, this grouping is well-placed to collaborate.” With these arguments as a reference point, this paper analyses the semiconductor supply chain collaboration announcement at the first in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit.Read the full paper on the Institute of South Asian Studies website here [HTML & PDF].
Fantasy sport, Karnataka’s online gambling ban, and what policymaking gets wrong
Over the past few years, online fantasy sport (OFS) in India have gone from being a rather shady area of niche interest to becoming ubiquitous, so much so that a fantasy sport platform, Dream 11, was the title sponsor of IPL 2020. Indeed, the IPL viewing experience has changed significantly in recent years, with the long breaks between overs now stuffed with an array of commercials about cryptocurrencies, mutual funds and above all, fantasy sport. To someone unfamiliar with state-level policy developments in the country, this omnipresence of fantasy sport commercials would seem to suggest the presence of a thriving and safe fantasy sport industry, but the reality, of course, is quite the opposite.Creating fantasy teams and participating in fantasy sport contests, as would be obvious to many, involves a significant amount of domain knowledge, for instance, of cricket gameplay, player form, pitch conditions, and a deep understanding of the intricacies of T20 cricket (like wickets in powerplay overs are more valuable than in the death overs). Thus, investing money in an OFS cannot be called gambling.
On Semiconductors, India Needs to Reboot Trade Policies, Ecosystem to Build a TSMC
By Arjun Gargeyas and Pranay Kotasthane
Talks have accelerated between India and Taiwan to build a state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing unit in the country. Reports have indicated that officials from both sides have met regularly to discuss the possible outcomes of Taiwan investing in a fabrication facility in India. The Taiwanese government and its major foundries, which hold the lion’s share of the world’s semiconductor manufacturing supply, have reportedly agreed to invest $7.5 billion in India to set up a long-pending fab in the country.
I could serve the Indian Army thanks to IAF ‘bounce’ party 50 years ago
The 1971 War gifted the 49th Regular Course at the Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, three additional months of commissioned service. Our commissioning was advanced to 31 March 1972, instead of June that year, to make up for the war causalities. The losses had bequeathed the benefit of early commissioning to about 350 of us. Later, it became a topic of debate among our coursemates whether the benefit we enjoyed was at a cost to the Army. Some thought that the three months of training lost had often shown up in the overall performance of the batch.
While such debates will continue life long, here is a personal story that wouldn’t have been the same, had it not been for the Indian Air Force (IAF). As the IAF celebrates its raising on 8 October, I say “cheers” to them.
Read the full article in ThePrint
How China manufactured nationalism in triumph over Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s return
"If faith has colour, it must be China Red," said 49-year-old Meng Wenzhou, after returning to China after almost three years. Triumph in her speech and nationalism in the air around her couldn't have been more evident.Meng Wanzhou, Chief Finance Officer (CFO) of Huawei, returned to China on 25 September after she was arrested in December 2018 in Canada following an extradition request from the US, on charges of with fraud and misleading HSBC over Huawei’s business dealings in Iran in violations of American sanctions on Iran. She pleaded “not guilty” to charges but accepted that some information in her presentation to HSBC was false. She returned after the United States (US) agreed to drop the extradition request. The nationalist rhetoric of China's triumph in securing Meng's release was overflowing everywhere from state media to social media. Social media was abuzz with news of Meng coming back to the "motherland" to the extent that on 25th Sept, 26 of the top 30 hot searches on Weibo were related to Meng.While netizens admired China’s diplomatic efforts for securing her release, others were swooning over the very public display of affection by Meng's husband, Liu Xiaozong. The nationalistic fervour among netizens is perhaps best exemplified by a cartoon by Chinese cartoonist Wu Heqiling. It depicts a woman dressed in yellow being rescued from a huge shark-like creature, with its skin coloured as the US flag, by officers in a red helicopter. The cartoon went viral in China and even the Embassy of People's Republic of China in Sri Lanka shared it on Twitter. State media in China left no stone unturned in covering Meng's return. The hours-ling live broadcast of her landing at Bao’an airport in Shenzhen also featured a live flight tracker. Over 400 million people reportedly watched the live broadcast.The celebration is part of State media’s carefully manufactured nationalistic narrative.Read full article published by Firstpost.
COVID-19 outbreak underlines need for India to develop its own epidemic intelligence service
Australia may have opened the door for India. Like Rafale, a submarine deal is critical
Fear, it seems, is the reigning global emotion and is reflected in innumerable speeches at the seventy-sixth United Nations General Assembly session. The dangers posed to humanity by climate change, extremism, and human and women’s rights violations were seated in the front row of the hall of fear. Cooperation was a popular antidote. The problem is that global geopolitics is currently afflicted by a surge in confrontations, especially between the United States and China — the big powers.
Power balancing is the name of the game and both are in search of partners. Middle powers in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific cannot possibly escape the shadows cast by the global and regional struggle for domination. India’s geographic endowments make it a prisoner of forces at play in both geographies. The Eurasian geopolitical struggle is for India, a primarily continental one, while the Indo-Pacific struggle is maritime. Striking a balance between the two is one of the central challenges of India’s national security strategy.
India should invest in ever more sophisticated cyber armaments
A century ago, the declaration of war was a formal exercise. Diplomats in frock coats would turn up at chancellories to first serve ultimatums and subsequently to hand-deliver notices of war. Some would even insist on reading them out aloud for the benefit of bemused recipients, who would then make arrangements for the safe departure of the enemy’s embassy. These age-old courtesies were abridged by the time of World War II and terse telegrams replaced frock coats. The advent of the Cold War, nuclear weapons and proxy wars of the 20th century put an end to the custom of formal war declarations. In recent times, an incoming missile or fighter aircraft announces war. Even so, we are used to wars that have a starting point and an end date.Not anymore. Information warfare is an ongoing affair. Cyber warfare, its technical aspect, has already been militarized. It is global and continues regardless of whether or not states are in armed conflict. We cannot pinpoint the date, month or even the year it started. And, unfortunately, we also cannot say when it will end, if ever. States have no choice but to wage it. Gloomy as this sounds, at least so far the pursuit of politics through these other means has avoided large scale bloodshed that characterized armed conflicts of the Industrial Age.Read the full article in The Mint
In Quad’s Semiconductor Gambit against China, India Stands to Gain
By Pranay Kotasthane
Semiconductors gave become a domain of confrontation between the US and China. And then, the demand shock of COVID-19 led to a severe shortage of chips in automobiles, medical devices, and other sectors. And finally, fears of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan—which alone accounts for nearly 73 per cent of the world’s global contract chip manufacturing—have made countries scramble for alternatives. And so, from being at the margins of the technology policy agenda of several countries, semiconductors have become a primary focus area. Little wonder then that the first in-person Quad Summit meeting on September 24 had semiconductors on its agenda.
The Murky Waters of Kerala’s Knowledge Economy Mission
The Union, States, and other stakeholders can reap benefits from broad-based employment platforms like the Kerala Knowledge Economy Mission. But for such technological innovations to succeed, they require more nuance, engagement, and diversity at the design stage to cater to the needs of all of Kerala’s unemployed.
As Quad focuses on Tech, the Debate on Standard Setting
By Arjun Gargeyas
Technology will be at the forefront of the first in-person Quad summit in the United States (US). The control of critical technologies and their supply chains remain essential for all States to project their geopolitical influence. However, having a grip on the governance mechanism of these critical technologies in the form of technical standards can be a gamechanger in the geostrategic field.A technical standard serves as a means for governance in the realm of a wide range of technologies. With several emerging fields such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), blockchain, and 5G, there is a need to establish a common direction of functioning for all States and private companies undertaking research and development in the field of technology. While this remains the idea behind the setting up of technical standards, recent developments have broadened the scope of the necessity of these standards.
India's Vaccine Diplomacy should take a Backseat Now
By Arjun Gargeyas
As a major vaccine manufacturer, India is expected to lend its hand to protect global health by exporting vaccines to other nations which are yet to administer vaccination doses to the majority of its population. Sources in the Indian government have mentioned India's plans to restart the export of vaccines to African nations in the coming weeks. There have also been reports that the Prime Minister's visit with the United States President later this month will discuss the possibility of India's role in vaccine exports. Biden is expected to convince Modi to make India release a number of doses as humanitarian aid to other countries to combat the spread of the virus and its deadly variants.But is it time to go back to vaccine diplomacy or should India take time to assess the situation better and make a rational decision? There are reasons to suggest that India, despite being a benevolent state, should adopt a wait and watch approach when dealing with vaccine exports from the country.
Swooping down on algorithms
China has pursued aggressive measures on the entire gamut of its tech sector in the past few months, ranging from strong-arming IPOs to limiting gaming hours for children. A host of legislative instruments are in the process of adoption. This includes the Personal Information Protection Law, the Cybersecurity Law, and the draft Internet Information Service Algorithmic Recommendation Management Provisions.Read the full article in The Hindu
AUKUS a game of musical chairs in Indo-Pacific
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
The exclusion of France, India and Japan indicates that at the drop of a hat those in the fold may be oustedUS should take the right approach with IndiaPreviously, the role now to be assigned to AUKUS was envisaged to be undertaken in part by the Quad. However, several factors including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s broader focus than just the military dimension perhaps made it unsuitable for the purpose. Some commentators have already noticed the absence of other important countries in the US-led anti-China bulwark – India and Japan – in this new AUKUS grouping.Perhaps to prevent any fissures in its relationships with those countries and the Quad, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was quick to make presumably reassuring phone calls to the leaders of both India and Japan. The Australian high commissioner in India, Barry O’Farrell, also spoke of India being in the loop before the AUKUS announcement was made public. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato also conveyed a positive reaction to the announcement.
However, the resultant chaos around the exclusion of France, India and Japan is reminiscent of a game of geopolitical musical chairs – where at the drop of a hat rebalancing may occur and those in the fold may be ousted. This will inevitably bring chaos and uncertainty to the balance of power in the region.India for its part has developed closer and closer ties to the US in the domain of strategic and defense cooperation, including the signing of such agreements as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), COMCASA (the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA).These agreements are significant to Indian strategic and military capabilities by virtue of providing unprecedented access to key communications technology and data streams that can vastly improve the accuracy of India’s missile arsenal. However, they are not likely to give India autonomous capabilities to benefit from or use as New Delhi wishes. This is in direct contrast to Russia’s willingness to lease sensitive military hardware like its advanced nuclear-propelled submarines of the Akula class.Russia has also aided the development of India’s indigenous nuclear-submarine program, particularly its miniature onboard nuclear power plants. Washington’s broader strategic aim of dissuading India away from Russia has been characteristic of the “stick” approach, as evident from it mulling the imposition of sanctions over India’s S-400 purchase under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).Washington would find much more success in this endeavor were it instead to follow a “carrots” approach by offering India one of its Seawolf-class advanced fast attack nuclear submarines on the same 10-year lease terms as the Russian Akulas. This scenario has the potential to draw India much closer to the US and might serve as a watershed move that could weaken Russo-Indian defense ties further.
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
Gen Rawat’s ‘clash of civilisation’ row shows military should be seen but not heard in press
On September 15, the Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat posed a question before a gathering of Delhi’s strategic community. He asked them, rhetorically, whether China’s growing engagement with Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan would lead to the rebooting of the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ theory with the Chinese and Islamic civilisations joining against the Western world? The query raised by the CDS was part of an intellectual discourse and not, by any standards, a policy statement. But the media reported it as such and ended up seeding a controversy during a sensitive phase in China-India relations.
A day later, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar chose to clarify the doubt before his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Dushanbe: “India had never subscribed to any clash of civilisations theory”. But the CDS, who is no stranger to controversies, again found himself at the receiving end. The episode raises questions about civil-military-media relations that need scrutiny.